Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Invest 90, on the verge

This Wednesday morning, the wave over the Yucatan Channel, is ready to become a depression. The nearby shear has relaxed and the warm ocean water is providing plenty of fuel. A recon plane is scheduled to investigate the system in a few hours.

Mexican radar is showing that a surface circulation may be already forming about 50 miles Northeast of Cancun. Meanwhile, satellite imagery shows that more thunderstorms are developing around that possible center of circulation. Because of this, NHC is raising the chances of development from 70% during the overnight, to 80% this morning. This wave may become a Depression later today or even Tropical Storm "Don", down the road.

Storm information valid as of:Wednesday, July 27, 2011
Coordinates:21.9N 86.5W 
Location:56 miles NNE from CancĂșn,MĂ©xico
Hurricane Hunter:Scheduled for today
Pressure (MSLP):1008 mb (29.77 inches)
Sustained wind speed (1 min. avg.):35 mph 

Plenty of rain can be expected over Western Cuba and the Yucatan peninsula. If this system remains as a depression, it could be the answer to Texas's prayers. They are in a severe drought and this rain would be a huge relief.

The latest suite of  model runs keep the wave tracking northwest and threatening anywhere from Northern Mexico, to Texas and  Louisiana.  NO worries for us.

This tropical wave came to life last week near the Lesser Antilles. It traveled west over the high terrain of Dominican Republic and Haiti keeping it in check until reaching Central Cuba.

In the short term, there is plenty of moisture with this wave and some of it could track here. Expect some showers and t-storms to pop up over our area with a better chance towards the Keys and Southwest Florida.

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