Saturday, July 16, 2011

New Tropical Depression 2

Air force hurricane hunters determined that INVEST 98 was indeed better organized and have called it a Tropical Depression. The recon plane detected tropical storm force winds but discarded this reading as erroneous and left it as a depression.

It sits around 100 miles northwest of Great Abaco island drifting south.  This is what should happen over the next few days.

  • The steering winds are very light and so TD 2 should meander close to us for at least 48 hrs. This could bring us some unsettled weather until Tuesday. We can expect more rain.
  • By Monday, high pressure to the east moves away as a front dives into the southeast. This opens a path in the atmosphere for TD2 to take.  
  • Most models now show a track away from Florida and towards the mid Atlantic.

As with everything tropical,  keep your eyes on this system for any surprises. There is plenty of hot water that it can use for fuel and rapid intensification is always a possibility.  Plus, if the high doesn't budge east, then TD2 will remain very close to us.

More and more the models are coming more in line with a future track away from Florida.

This low developed on Saturday along a stationary front draped across Louisiana, Florida, and the Atlantic Waters.  

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