Tuesday, June 7, 2011

Window may have closed

SLAM! Did you hear that? That was the sound made by mother nature shutting the "window of opportunity" for this low to grow stronger. The tropical low in the Caribbean is falling apart as strong upper level winds invade from the northwest. NHC has dropped its chances for development to just 10%.

Here is the latest:

LAT: 17.8 N LON: 81.6 W or about 100 miles SW of Grand Cayman

Winds: 25 mph

Pressure: 1007 mb

Moving: Stationary

The rain is being dragged away from this elongated area of low pressure and pushed east over Jamaica, Cuba, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. All these areas are under flood advisories of some type as heavy rains continue to plague them.

Haiti reports 23 dead from flooding. Jamaica claims one death due to the rain, and two fatalities are being reported in the Dominican Republic.

The models still do not have a firm handle on where this invest may go. Some push it into the Atlantic while others take it into the Gulf of Mexico. A Gulf track would be beneficial for us as it could provide for some much needed rain.

I do believe the same strong upper winds weakening the low, are also pushing the rain away. We would be very lucky if we got anything in the form of showers here by the end of the week. I think mother nature may be shutting the door on this opportunity as well... cover your ears.

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