Monday, June 27, 2011

Two areas Update

Recon plane en route to Invest 95L. About 100 miles removed from New Orleans LA.

Still watching two areas in the tropics. one in the Gulf, and the other over Hispaniola in the Caribbean. We begin with the activity in the Gulf of Mexico.

There is a broad area of low pressure at 20N 93W, over the Bay of Campeche, trying to get its act together. It is roughly 212 miles East of Veracruz, Mexico. As of this update, NHC is giving it a 50% chance it could grow stronger during the next two days. The lowest pressure reading so far is 1007 mb.

Very strong upper level winds are keeping it in check, but over the next 24-48 hours, those winds will relax giving this feature a chance to become a depression. It is also sitting over very warm water and this too should provide fuel for its tropical engine.

If it does become a depression, most models take it towards Central Mexico. Some of the moisture associated with this broad low may splinter away and head to Texas where they are under an extreme drought, any rain there will be welcomed.

Here in South Florida we too may get some of that moisture in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere which could translate into a good chance for rain through Wednesday. Our main rain-maker, however, should be the beach breeze pushing rain inland. We too are still in need of rain.

Meanwhile, over in Hispaniola, a tropical wave is making its way West. It will continue to dump rainfall over Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and Haiti. As of this moment, conditions are not favorable for development.



This is what the local NWS office in San Juan is telling us regarding the next 24 hours:

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY RESULT IN URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND
WEST SECTIONS OF MAINLAND PUERTO RICO. THEREAFTER... NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

The weather offices out of Dominican Republic and Haiti are also expecting plenty of rain. If indeed heavy rainfall does occur, the threat for flash floods, land and mudslides will be present. We will be watching all this activity and reporting back if anything changes.

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