Friday, June 3, 2011

Funny Feeling

A broad area of low pressure has been sitting over the Caribbean now for almost three days. It is slowly getting its act together and may get better organized over the weekend.

You can see the cloud cover on the sat image above, it covers most of the islands from Jamaica, through Hispaniola, and even Puerto Rico. Even if it doesn't develop, it will dump plenty of rain over the area leading to flooding, land, and mud slides.

This low has been kept in check by strong upper level winds pushing from west to east, but over the last 24 hours these winds have been relaxing. This will give the low some wiggle room to get its act together.

The heavy rain will be the biggest worry over the next 48 hours. The image below shows the advisories in effect for the region. Some places could get as much as 2-5 inches.

Here is my thinking for the next 5 days:

  • As the upper winds weaken, the low will get its act together

  • Steering winds will be light so the low will get stuck where it is right now dumping plenty of rain.

  • With very warm Caribbean Sea temps, there is enough fuel there for further growth.

  • By early next week, the low may be just South of Cuba, pushing some rain our way.

If the above happens, we could get a good (and much needed ) tropical drenching starting around mid-week. The worry will then be, (and here's my funny feeling ) if the low continues to grow what happens next. Some long range models push it towards the eastern Bahamas, while others keep it near our area. I'll keep you posted.

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