Tropical Soap Opera

Remember when you would watch your favorite soap for months, then, you would skip it for about a year and a half and when tuned back in, nothing would have changed? Well, welcome to "As 94 L Spins".

This broad area of low pressure looks a little better this afternoon with most t-storms trying to develop around the poorly organized center. It has drifted somewhat to the west but remains more or less where it has been since last week... in the Caribbean Sea.


The latest:

• LAT: 18.0 N LON: 82.0 W , or about 125 miles south southwest of Grand Cayman Island.




• Winds remain at around 30 mph and is still just over 600 miles removed from South Florida.




• A line of clouds extends from here to Atlantic Ocean.




• NHC has scheduled a recon flight for Tuesday.




• They have lowered its chances for developing from 50% to 40%

The Satellite Picture below shows the amount of moisture in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere, and there is plenty of it. Heavy rain can be expected from Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, Dominican Republic, and even Puerto Rico. This will lead to flooding, land and mudslides that could lead to loss of life.















Forecast:

For awhile over the weekend, the models hinted at a course towards Cuba and then the Gulf Mexico. The latest runs now fan out the possible tracks. Anytime you see this fanning effect, it basically means the models really do not have a handle on where the system may go.











Conditions in the atmosphere are still good for this low to develop, but that window of opportunity is closing. If it doesn't intensify within 24 hours, upper level winds grow stronger and will provide wind shear keeping it in check. It would be wonderful if we got a tropical drenching without the worry of a depression or storm hitting us but even that may be for another episode. This is what NWS is saying:

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE THIS FAR INTO EXTENDED

FORECAST,THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING DEEP LAYER

MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARD THE END OF 

THE WEEK AS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE CARIBBEAN 

SLOWLYDRIFTS WEST-NORTHWEST. DUE TO THIS LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL 

SLIGHTLY INCREASE RAINFALL COVERAGE PROBABILITIES BACK TOWARD 

CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

So all we can do is follow the leading actors in this Mother Nature production and see what develops.