Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Irene


Like many of you I am worried seeing such a huge and powerful hurricane sitting so close to South Florida. Just a mere 350 miles east sits a Category three monster. It has already caused plenty of damage along the Central and Southeastern Bahamas.

It will continue to pack a punch as it moves over the Northwestern Bahamas.

It is undergoing an eyewall replacement and will continue to wobble overnight. This is typical for hurricanes as they never travel in a straight line so this little jog is to be expected.

Most models expect some strong upper winds to move off the Southeast coast tonight and protect us from Irene.




I trust these models, but I also remember 2004 when Hurricane Charlie was headed to Tampa and within hours grew into a major storm and impacted SW Florida instead.


The latest suite of model runs still keep Irene away from us heading to the Carolinas and then the Northeast.






This is how NHC is looking at it.



  • THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING NEAR OR OVER SOME OF THE BAHAMAS RESULTING IS SOME WOBBLING. 
  • THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LARGE TROUGH ((Strong Upper Winds)) ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IS MATERIALIZING AS PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.
  • THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL FORCE IRENE TO TURN TOWARD THENORTH-NORTHWEST AND THE NORTH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
  • THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE...AND PERHAPS THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS SHIFTED 30N MI TO THE WEST...TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION DURING THE LAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST. 
  • THIS DOES NOT RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.



I don't know if that makes me feel any less uneasy. I will get a few hours sleep and wait for the next big advisory at 5am.... Hope for the best.















8 comments:

  1. I hope they r right Phil. Im all over this as you are. I remember hurricane Charlie..I got my eye on this all night

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  2. What?!?!? If you are uneasy what can we expect?

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  3. DRAMA... All Drama.

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  4. Its all for ratings. I am willing to guarantee this storm will not come near us, nor will any other. I agree, its just drama..

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  5. you guys are nuts. Computer modes are a good tool but nobody can't predict mother nature. Everyone in Florida needs to monitor the weather. This system is almost on top of us and can have a huge effect on FL.

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  6. Irene has the potential to destroy Florida, this is not a drama attempt guys.

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  7. Dramatic yes, but justified. Don't turn your back on this monster till it goes north of us.

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  8. My wife has called me many things in my life, dramatic is not one of them. It is my responsibility to look at what science says; recall history, and let you know what is happening. NHC is confident Irene will miss us... I feel uneasy.
    Until I see this thing moving North, I will remain uneasy. Computer models are not perfect and Mother Nature always has the last word.

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