Saturday, June 1, 2019

Watching a Low in the Gulf

Hurricane Season is underway and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is already busy. They are watching a broad area of low pressure in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico.  

This Morning's Satellite Loop



The loop runs from the overnight hours to early Saturday morning.  You can see a small spin of clouds in the Bay of Campeche, or the SW Gulf of Mexico. This is what NHC is monitoring.




NHC says it has a 50% chance of growing into a depression or storm over the next 5 days in the area highlighted. Even if it doesn't develop, it will drop plenty of rain over coastal Mexico, leading to flooding and mudslides.

This system is sitting right over an area that we monitor closely this time of year.

Early in the season, we look to the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico and Florida's Coastal waters for storm formation. These bodies tend to warm up the fastest, and thus systems can develop quickly.  Storms need at least 80 degrees of water temp to organize, so we pay close attention to these areas. Today we are looking at scattered clouds under very nice conditions. No worries here.


Over the first 10 days of June, no storms organize in the Eastern Atlantic, more form closer to us, with the bulk of activity in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Their season started May 15th, because water there heats up the fastest.


If anything were to develop this month, these are the favored tracks by tropical systems.


SEA SURFACE TEMPS
Water temperatures displayed in Celsius
Speaking of hot water, look at the area west of Central America and Mexico. Plenty of heat energy for anything to develop. There however, most tracks move out over the Pacific.

For us, temps are warming up, specially in the area where formation is more typical this week.

While everything is quiet now, I suggest you get ready and prepare.

Take one day to get your supplies out of the way. Invest one day into a season that lasts 6 months and you'll be ready for whatever Mother Nature throws our way..

No worries anywhere now, so enjoy, we'll keep monitoring. 
























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