The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is raising the chances for organization for an area of low pressure in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico. A recon plane is on stand-by for tomorrow if needed to check out the would-be system.
NHC is upping the chances for growth from 50% to 60% over 5 days in the area highlighted orange. Even if it doesn't develop, it will surely dump plenty of rain over Coastal Mexico. This will in turn cause flooding, land, and mudslides.
NHC is now calling this low, Invest 91L. Invest for an area they want to INVESTigate further, "91" is just a tracking number used until it organizes, and "L" stands for the Atlantic Basin. Invest 90L was used by Andrea in mid May. The next Invest will be 92L. When the sequence reaches 99L, it'll start at 90L again and repeat.
Where is it headed?
You are looking at the spaghetti models (their nickname comes from all the tracks looking like cooked spaghetti) and they do not show much movement in the days ahead. Most agree whatever develops will move inland across Mexico's Gulf Coast. Keep in mind since nothing has developed yet, the models are purely guesstimating. Once there is a well organized center, then the models will have a good starting point in which to base their forecast tracks.
Euro vs GFS Models
The European model suggests the low will continue tracking into Mexico possibly moving on shore by Sunday.
This model places the system across the central Gulf Coast of Mexico.
The GFS model is a bit slower in forward speed. It keeps the low in the Bay of Campeche thru Sunday.
The GFS then dissipates it quickly as it moves inland.
Rain Maker
By Sunday, even if nothing develops, the Low will have enough moisture to provide heavy rain over much of the Mexican coast. The GFS rain model suggests big downpours over a 2-3 day period.
NO Impacts are expected across Florida, or the Bahamas from this low. Cuba may get some scattered downpours over the Western part of the island.
We'll keep watching.
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