From South Florida to the Tropics, Mother Nature's Fireworks

The next few days will be interesting indeed as rain may pop up on the 4th, and the National Hurricane Center is looking at a couple of disturbances.

Lets begin with the possibility of Mother Nature delivering her own fireworks on the 4th. On the satellite image above you will notice a ring of clouds east of Florida, this is a low pressure system. It's not your typical run of the mill low near the surface, but an upper low in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere.

This low will continue to move west and should push in some moisture across South Florida. As of 10 pm Monday night, that model run suggested downpours starting around midday.

The same model run suggests that the rain should all have moved west or fallen apart completely, just in time for the fireworks displays. We are hoping it is correct!

 In the Tropics

 

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is watching a couple of features that promise some organization in the days ahead. We begin with possible activity in the Western Atlantic. 

NHC says a disturbance East of the Carolinas, has a 50% chance of  becoming a depression or a tropical storm somewhere in the area highlighted in orange over 5 days. The good news is, a front streaming out on the Upper Midwest should reach the coast in time to keep the disturbance offshore and away from land.

The second area being monitored is an aggressive tropical wave close to the Cape Verde Islands in the Far Eastern Atlantic.  It is battling dry air to the north but it may have enough moisture seeping from the south that could keep it going.

 

NHC is giving the wave a 20% chance for organization in the area highlighted in yellow thru 5 days.

Saharan Dust

The dust is thrown into the atmosphere by strong storms over the Sahara desert. It is carried across the ocean by strong upper level winds and can be a limiting factor to storm formation. In the image above you can see the dust as a fine, almost "milky-looking", shine that extends from the west coast of Africa across the Mid Atlantic and into the Caribbean.  If the tropical wave is going to grow, its going to have to survive this moisture starving atmospheric feature.

We'll keep monitoring. Have a safe 4th of July!!!