Hurricane Activity update, El Niño, and Saharan Dust

NOAA released its El Niño update for the rest of the year and it looks promising. They suggest it may be back by the fall.

What is El Niño?

 This is a warming of the equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean. It not only disrupts marine currents but atmospheric ones as well. It's like shaking a snow globe with mostly negative weather results, except it makes hurricane formation a tad more difficult. It does this by making conditions in the upper atmosphere hostile for storm growth. The winds act as a blade cutting down the cloud tops of any organizing system. This sounds good but will it arrive in time?

NOAA says, El Niño, has a 50% chance of returning by the fall and a 65% chance by winter. Unfortunately the peak of hurricane season is mid September and by winter, tropical activity is done, so it may not have too much of an impact. We'll keep monitoring.

Where's the Tropical Action now?

The Atlantic Basin is very quiet with only one area of concern in the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center is giving it only a 10% chance for development over 5 days. Even if it doesn't develop, it could still drop heavy rain from Mexico to Texas.

All the real activity is in the Eastern Pacific where three systems have sprouted since May 15th. The first two reached category four status, with "Aletta" fading over open waters and "Bud", now only a tropical storm set to make landfall across Baja, California.  A new third system, Depression #4 E (E=Eastern Pacific) is poised to go ashore by Acapulco in the days ahead. 

Saharan Dust

We may get some of this over us during the weekend. Across the globe in Africa, huge storms over the Sahara desert whip up enormous sand storms that fling dust into the atmosphere. This dust is carried by upper winds over the Atlantic until it reaches the Antilles and South Florida.

This is both good and bad. The Saharan Dust should dry us out, bringing us hazy skies, along with hotter temps. The down side is that the dust is an irritant and may cause trouble for folks with respiratory issues. Hopefully Father's Day weekend should be on the dry side to help all the dads celebrate.