Two to Watch in the Tropics

The National Hurricane Center is following two areas in the Atlantic for the possibility of development. The first is closer to the U.S., with the second farther away in the Mid Atlantic Ocean.

Area #1, Disturbance East of Florida

At one time this area of clouds and rain had a 60% chance to become something stronger, such as a depression or a named system, but as of 8 pm Wednesday night, the potential for development came down to 50%. If it were to organize, it could do it over the next 5 days inside the area highlighted in orange. 

If it did grow, a front coming out the nation's midsection would push it away from the states.

Area # 2 Vigorous Low in Mid Atlantic

Low pressure is spinning about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. It is moving quickly at around 15 - 20 miles per hour. It was nothing more than a weak tropical wave a mere 24 hours ago, and since then, it has become an area of low pressure with a very high chance for development. It is quickly getting its act together even though there are a few obstacles in front of it.

If it were to develop, where will it go?

The very early model runs suggest high pressure to the north and the trade winds to the south will push the Low  west-northwest over the next 5 days. It has a good chance of becoming a depression or even a tropical storm as it continues to develop more thunderstorm activity.

Features working against the Low

Number 1: Shear

In this graphic you can see both, where the models place the system, and where "Shear" can be found.  "Shear" are very strong winds high up in the atmosphere that help cut down tropical systems.  By Monday, the brownish colors, represent strong winds or very unfavorable areas for the Low to travel through. It may weaken back to a wave or erased completely.

Number 2: Saharan Dust

 

By now you know huge wind storms over the Sahara desert spew dust into the Upper Levels of the Atmosphere. This Saharan Dust is very dry and keeps tropical systems from growing or developing at all. There is plenty of this dust to the north and west of the low, and yet it's managing to form plenty of thunderstorms.

What's working for it?

Warm water. Sea surface temps of 80° and above is what helps these tropical engines run. The Low is straddling the edge of the warmer waters of the Atlantic and it appears it may do so until it reaches the Lesser Antilles.

For you across the Islands, remain vigilant. Even though the Low is expected to weaken as it nears you, Mother Nature can always change her mind.  I'll keep you posted.