Tuesday, August 2, 2016

Distant Wave means local rain

For the last few days we've been watching a wave make its way across parts of the Caribbean Sea dumping plenty of rain. Jamaica, Haiti, and Dominican Republic all have seen copious amounts of rainfall. Each country has enacted its own version of watches and advisories.

Satellite imagery:

As of Tuesday morning, Jamaica is getting the brunt of the wind and rain while conditions are improving for Haiti and Dominican Republic. 

It appears there is finally a low level center within this wave/broad low system.  
I believe they will find a Tropical Storm or at the very least a tropical depression.

Hurricane Hunters:

They are in the disturbance as of mid morning Tuesday. They should find at the very least a depression over the area.

This is their second attempt as Monday's mission was recalled just before penetrating the wave due to technical issues.

If it is called a storm, it will be named "Earl".

Where is it headed?:

Models remain in fair agreement that this system will head due west over the next few days.

It should impact Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula with gusty winds and plenty of rain. This will lead to flooding, land and mudslides across the region.

I'm sure advisories will go up for them shortly if this wave is elevated to storm status.


If its not coming here, why the rain?
This wave, also known as INVEST 97,  has plenty of moisture with it and some of that is being spun out and sent to Florida.

On the water vapor satellite image, you can see where most of the moisture can be found. We are looking at the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere in this loop. The bright blues, greens, and reds are the wettest areas, while the brows are the driest.

Some of that moisture has splintered away over the last 24 hours, pushing rain here.  More of that moisture is set to swing away and keep us mostly cloudy, breezy, with a chance of anytime downpours through Wednesday.

We will continue to monitor this INVEST, and wait for the recon data. I'll keep you posted.

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