Thursday, July 28, 2016

Two Waves to Watch

NHC is watching two waves in the Eastern Atlantic. They are trying to get their acts together as they move west across the ocean pushed along by the Bermuda high.We've been following the one closest to the West Coast of Africa since Wednesday.  This wave also has an area of low pressure near the surface located around 300 miles SSE of the Cape Verde Islands.

It has a 40% chance for development over 5 days in the area highlighted in orange. 

Keep in mind this is not a forecast track, but it is the area NHC thinks it has a chance to become a depression or a storm.
The newest wave is the one highlighted with the yellow "X". 

It's sitting right smack in the middle between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, moving rather quickly west at almost 30 mph.

Development is being kept low because of that speed, but it could still drop some rain over the islands by the weekend. Again the yellow swath is not a track but where it may organize and grow stronger.

Both of the waves have a huge road block ahead of them in the form of strong upper level winds.

They are being caused by a combination of an Upper High in the Atlantic and an Upper Low north of Puerto Rico.

This combo could end up being fatal to the waves, as the strong upper winds converging east of the Lesser Antilles can shear them apart.

All we can do is wait and see what happens.

Upper Low could be a Rainmaker:
The low near Puerto Rico has plenty of moisture with it and it is moving west.  If it does not fall apart, this is what we can expect.

By Friday:
The rain should start moving into Hispaniola and SE Bahamas with fresh winds out of the East. It could cause a few issues for boaters.

The rain shifts to the Central Bahamas. If the wave in the Mid Atlantic survives the shear, it should be near the Islands. It may provide for some rain.

The Upper Low shifts over South Florida pushing moisture our way which could lead to a chance for pockets of rain. The wave should be aiming for Cuba.

Long range outlook:
If the wave persists, we may be some tropical downpours here by the middle of next week.

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