Friday, August 19, 2016

Wave to watch

There's plenty of activity in the Tropics as we head into the weekend. Tropical Storm "Fiona" continues to weaken as it heads Northwest in the Atlantic, a worry only to shipping lanes.

There is a wave storming off the west coast of Africa which NHC is already giving a 30% chance for organization over 5 days once it emerges into the Atlantic.

Then there's the feature we are really paying attention to, the one with the orange ring.

NHC is placing a 50% chance for development on this broad area of low pressure.

It appears it will continue to move west aiming for the islands.

Where can it develop?

It can develop anywhere in the area highlighted in orange over the next 5 days.

NHC says:
Its roughly 600 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, moving towards the Caribbean at around
15 - 20 mph.

It has to overcome two obstacles for growth:
First Hurdle: This broad low, while trying to get its act together, has very little t-storm activity. It needs to ramp up the thunderstorm creation process if it intends to survive.

Second Hurdle: It is being impacted by dry air to the north giving it little moisture to work with. It may be able to break this grip in days 3 - 5 of the forecast cycle.


If it does develop, long range models place this disturbance near the Lesser Antilles and even near the Bahamas in about a week.

I must caution since nothing has developed, there is no good starting point for the models to use. No good starting point, means no good ending point. So at this stage of the game the models are giving us an educated guess.  

Its just meant to give everyone across the Lesser Antilles a heads up on what may be developing to the east.

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