Monday, August 22, 2016

Two Depressions & a Wave

Tropical activity is on the upswing as we are following three features in the Atlantic.

Tropical Depression "Fiona" refuses to give up as it churns away in the Mid Atlantic, still no worries to any landmass.

As of Monday afternoon, NHC was tracking Tropical Depression #7 in the Far Eastern Atlantic. By 11pm Monday night it was elevated to Tropical Storm "Gaston". There's also a vigorous wave nearing the Lesser Antilles.

Everyone from the Leeward Islands NW through the Bahamas and Florida should follow this one.

Lets begin with the latest Storm:
It is moving NW rather quickly and could become a Category 1 system over the next 24-36 hours.  This one should remain an open water system. (Good News)

A wave to watch:

This wave, sitting a few hundred miles to the east of the islands, appears to be getting its act together despite being surrounded by dry air throughout much of the day.

NHC is giving it a 60% chance it could become a depression or a storm over the next 5 days.

By midweek it should enter a more favorable area for growth with warmer waters needed for development.

The area highlighted in orange is where NHC thinks this wave may grow.

It can do so at anytime from the Leeward Islands, through Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Eastern Cuba, and Bahamas.

Where it may eventually end up or how strong it may be is another matter.

Scenario One:

Long range forecasts suggest the Bermuda High will weaken and drift East, while at the same time a front will stall over the Southeastern USA.

The wave will look for the gap between the two and head north.

This will mean rain and breezy conditions for the Bahamas and Florida, specially if something organizes.

Scenario Two:

In this case, the high remains firm with the front across the southeast fizzling, thus cutting off any escape route for the system.

This could mean more of an impact for Florida if it does develop.

Arrival time may be anywhere from Friday through the weekend.


Below is the latest run of models. The issue until it organizes, is that there is no good center of circulation. The models need a good starting point in order to give us good forecast tracks. Without that much needed starting point they are just guessing. Because of this, NHC has a recon plane on stand-by for Tuesday. 

I'll keep you posted.

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