Sunday, July 7, 2013

Next Storm?

I've been watching this feature in the Eastern Atlantic throughout the weekend. It is an area of clouds and rain spinning along, what could be a surface low, roughly 1200 miles East Southeast of the Windward Islands.

It popped up on NHC's screen late Friday night. Back then it was only given a 10% chance for development as it was too far South near the ITZC, and some dry Saharan air was keeping it in check.

But like the little engine that could... its chances have gone up to 60% as of this writing.

Here is the latest:

  • Showers and thunderstorms continue to grow
  • Atmospheric conditions are favorable for organization
  • It should continue to move West-Northwest over the next few days

Short Term:

  • The Windward Islands are keeping their eyes on this wave as it could bring along some squally weather.  
  •  It could turn into a tropical storm at any moment. 
  • The radar over the Lesser Antilles shows some scattered showers now but that could change if the low intensifies.

Long Term:
As with any tropical feature this far away from Florida and the Bahamas, all we can do is wait and prepare.

  • Right now, the low is being pushed to the west/nw by the Bermuda high. 
  • There appears to be nothing ahead of it to stop it until late in the cycle. 
  • Most models take the feature over the Windward Islands, then Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba and most of the Bahamas.

It seems that around 5-7 days out, the jet stream moves out of the Nation's midsection and into the Eastern Seaboard, deflecting the storm and keeping it over the Atlantic waters.

All we can do is watch and wait.  Model runs and atmospheric conditions change every few hours.  I'll keep you posted.