Saturday, October 8, 2011

Wet & Windy Weekend

Over the last few days the entire 7Weather team has been talking about the possibility of an area of low pressure developing near Florida.

The models were hinting at this happening but weren't clear as to where it may form. We showed a couple of scenarios on the air with the low tracking north on the West Coast, and another where it would organize over the Bahamas.

Our own in-house model agreed with the Bahamas development. On Saturday, NHC began to look closely at this area of clouds and rain and this is what they said.


  • A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED FROM THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL ANDEASTERN CUBA...MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...ALL OF THE BAHAMAS...AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. 
  • THE TROUGH HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE SLOWLY FALLING. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
  • REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.



The big question is... where will it go? As of this writing there is no clear direction, but what we do know is that this area of clouds and rain will keep our weather unstable at least through Sunday and maybe into the early part of next week.

The radar loop gives you an idea of the rain over South Florida.

We can expect anywhere between 3-6 inches of rain over the next 48 hours. Most of this energy will be focused primarily over Miami-Dade and Broward Counties.


Plenty of advisories for all of South Florida, The following comes directly from NWS
  • FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT PALM BEACH, BROWARD, MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
  • SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE AREA 
  • DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS, STRONG WINDS, BEACH EROSION, AND ROUGH SURF ATLANTIC COAST
ASIDE FROM THE FLOODING RISK FROM HEAVY RAINFALL, THERE IS ALSO A
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST, DUE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND A BUILDING
NORTHEAST SWELL. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST AT HIGH TIDE .

HAIL: PENNY SIZED HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TORNADOES: INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A SMALL POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED BRIEF
TORNADO DEVELOPING. 

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL OF A WATERSPOUT DEVELOPING
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: DANGEROUS STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR AT THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES, SO SWIMMING IS NOT ADVISED.

WAVES: SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL BUILD INTO THE 7 TO 10 FOOT
RANGE, EVEN UPWARDS TO AROUND 12 FEET OFF THE NORTHERN PALM BEACH
COAST. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE SURF ZONE ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 10 FEET OR HIGHER ALONG THE PALM BEACH COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FOR THIS REASON, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE PALM BEACH COAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

Here is the info for the Keys:

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
TODAY DUE TO SUSTAINED NORTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS LIKELY TONIGHT IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS BEYOND THE REEF FOR RESIDUAL SEAS NEAR 7 FEET.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS AND CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING STRIKES.



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