Monday, June 6, 2016

Poorly Organized "Colin"

Tropical Storm "Colin" is not a heathy system, but don't let that fool you. There's plenty of rain aiming for us and if that doesn't fall apart, the chances remain high for a big soaking this week.  As of the late morning update, strong storms are impacting areas from Ft. Myers north thru Tamps and points North.Flooding will be a major concern for the Tampa Area.

If you look at "Colin", you can't even tell its a tropical storm. No cloud cover to the west as upper winds interact with it shearing it apart. Most of the cloud cover and rain is either to the east or south of the poorly organized center.

It is such a ragged system that a morning recon mission noted "at least two small-scale circulation centers", this is not a good looking storm.

Working against it:

  • Strong upper winds will keep it in check.
  • It is also moving faster, moving at 14 mph, last night it was traveling to the North at 9 mph. 
This will not allow it to pick up the heat energy it needs to intensify.  Intensity forecasts call for no additional strengthening before making landfall.

BUT remember, intensity forecasting is not as precise as track forecasting.

Working for it:

  • It is traveling over the birth place of the Gulf Stream current, the "Loop Current". Tropical systems need at least 80F degrees of sea surface temps to grow and the temps here are in the mid 80s. Systems are like sponges soaking up all that heat but "Colin" is moving too fast to benefit from the jet fuel sitting in the Gulf.  Later on as it moves away from Florida and re-enters the Western Atlantic, it will once again travel over the Gulf Stream giving a small chance to pick up some intensity.

Where is it headed?

  • All the model data is convinced it will impact Florida's Big Bend, just north of Tampa, crossing over Jacksonville and entering the Atlantic Coastal waters afterwards. This is reflected in the forecast cone from NHC.

South Florida's impact:

  • Since the system is poorly organized and moving faster,  the impact forecast is not that clear for  Broward, Miami Dade, the Keys and Bahamas. 
  • The models pick up the lagging moisture and push it our way, whether it arrives is another story. If it does make it, it should arrive by tonight and Tuesday morning. 
  • These rain forecasts keep getting delayed and don't be surprised if they get pushed back again.

But if the rain makes it there's the possibility for heavy downpours and some street flooding.

What to watch?:

  • Here's the kicker. There's a front north of Florida that will continue to drag "Colin" Norttheast. 
  • Once the storm is in the Atlantic, that same front will drag the lingering moisture our way.  
  • This means the possibility of heavy rain. 

Thats what you should be monitoring. Stay tuned for the latest.


  1. Is Colin going to cause bad weather for FT. Lauderdale Area Phil? As in Bad thunderstorms or tornado's ?

  2. As of this moment, there's a small chance for twisters. Since its poorly organized, rain and storms can swing out anywhere. Most of the nasty stuff if over the Gulf. Rain keeps getting delayed and models suggest it'll start to move in Tuesday. I hope this helps.

  3. hi, traveling
    to miami thursday night through monday for a mini vaca..hows the weather looking? =-)