Monday, September 7, 2015

Steady pace "Grace"

Tropical Storm "Grace" is moving due west looking healthier as of Monday morning, but this may not last too long.

Satellite imagery shows:

  • Plenty of rain around its center. This usually means a well organized system
  • Satellite pictures also captured more rain in a couple of feeder bands. Feeder bands are those long spiral cloud bands that soak up all the heat energy from the ocean and transfer it to the center. If this process continues , then "Grace" should have no problem getting stronger

This growth spurt may not last long:
The same satellite imagery shows that shear is starting to make a move on "Grace".

Shear, is when strong opposing upper level winds cut the tops down of thunderstorms growing in the storm. This can weaken a system or sometimes kill it all together.

This year we've had more shear in the Atlantic Basin from "El Niño". This warming of the Pacific Ocean has made hurricane activity very difficult in the Atlantic. Most systems since Danny have been shredded by these strong winds. We can expect the same with "Grace".

This current "El Niño" event , is on its way to become the largest ever. If you want to know more click on this link.  What is "El Niño"? 

Here is a look at the latest model runs. They are working on the assumption "Grace" will survive the increasing shear.

What's next for "Grace"?
Most models agree it will continue to aim for the Lesser Antilles as a Tropical Storm, but the shear will increase. NHC says,"Environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable by tonight as westerly vertical wind shear increases and dry mid-level air over the tropical Atlantic impinges
on the circulation. "

This means "Grace" will have a hard time dealing with those opposing upper winds and so it should weaken as it nears the islands. "Grace" may even fall apart completely.

This would be good, no one wants to be hit by a storm, but they sure could use some rain. Much of the Lesser Antilles remain in drought status.

For the latest Advisory click on the link below:
Latest on "Grace"l

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