Saturday, September 5, 2015

New Depression #7

Cape Verde season is in high gear and a new depression, number 7, has formed off the west coast of Africa as of Saturday morning.

For the latest advisory on this system click on the link below:
Advisories from National Hurricane Center

We've been following this robust wave even when it was still over land.  Satellite imagery showed it was getting its act together with more banding and thunderstorm activity.
Even though there is some rain, its not that heavy, but it does have a good spin to it.

Special satellite data was used to detect circulation found in the mid levels of the wave, indicative of a developing depression.

NHC contacted ships near the area and confirmed it had stronger winds and thus this wave has now been upgraded to Tropical Depression Seven.

The surroundings of this depression seem to favor slow strengthening over the next few days while it stays in the far Eastern Atlantic. Its about 300 miles SSW of the Cape Verde Islands.

Models suggest it will continue to move almost due west for the next 5 days being pushed along by high pressure to its north. There is very little shear or strong opposing upper winds to keep it in check so it could become Tropical Storm "Grace".

In about 4 to 5 days the models indicate strong upper level winds will develop, slowing the system down and possibly weakening it. High pressure will move north allowing "Grace" to also make a turn for the North-Northwest.

This combination of strong shear and a jog to the north may just be enough to knock it out. This is what NHC says regarding the long term outlook:

Most of the global models forecast a significant increase in shear. This should halt any additional strengthening, and most likely the cyclone will weaken or could even dissipate well east of the Lesser Antilles.

This is the official forecast cone from NHC:

Hopefully this will just remain a worry for the shipping lanes.

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