Sunday, September 6, 2015

Lesser Antilles Eyeing Grace

A typical "Cape Verde" systems is chugging along in the Eastern Atlantic and aiming for the Lesser Antilles.

For you with family and friends, or those in the forecast path of "Grace", there is an uneasy feeling in your gut right now.

About a thousand miles to the east lays Tropical Storm "Grace" gaining strength and moving due west.

Satellite Imagery:

  • Shows more thunderstorm activity
  • Its looking better organized, with better banding, and what appears to be a well defined inner core.
  • The low level center is located further south than in previous advisories and NHC adds, "Grace is  well organized...(and its) intensity could be conservative."

The reason why the southward jog of the center is worrisome, is that its path will remain almost in a straight due west trajectory, with the islands in its sights.

As large and as strong as tropical systems can be, they don't move by themselves. They need something even larger to push them along and in this case its the Bermuda High.

This huge dome of high pressure has winds moving from West to East. These winds will keep pushing  "Grace" on a consistent course for the next 5 days.

The environment surrounding "Grace", has little shear. These are opposing upper level winds that help cut down the tops of developing t-storms and help keep storms in check.

These winds will remain weak over the next few days giving "Grace" a chance to grow stronger.

By days 4 and 5 of the forecast, NHC thinks the shear will get stronger and weaken "Grace" considerably.

Forecasting strength is the most difficult thing to do. The science is just not there. NHC is trying very hard with new technology to figure out a way to improve this, but for the moment its still illusive. This is why The Lesser Antilles should watch the progress of "Grace" this upcoming week.

For the latest National Hurricane Center advisory click on link below:
Update "Grace" advisory

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