Monday, May 4, 2015

Something to watch in Caribbean

 NHC says that an area of clouds and rain could become a subtropical system in around 5 days in an area East of Jacksonville. This area stretches from the Bahamas through the Straits, into Cuba and the Caribbean, and is slowly moving north and should be responsible for a wetter forecast for us over the next few days. NHC gives this feature a 30% chance of actually developing.  Their next update will be Tuesday at 11 am.

This is where NHC thinks it may develop in about 5 days. Repeating: There is a 30% chance of it happening.
 If it does develop into a subtropical storm, very early model runs aim in to the Carolinas. Now, keep in mind NOTHING has developed yet, so if there is nothing to track now, the models are just pure guessing. 

The forecast in this graphic shows what MAY happen IF something were to actually develop

They are also calling it right now, a possible SUB-tropical storm. This means it will be a mix between a regular low pressure system, and that of a typical tropical system. A tropical system has a warm center, a subtropical has a cold center so it doesn't have too much of a chance of really packing a punch (Kind of a Pacquiao storm).

What we should prepare for: 
The possibility of increasing rainfall through midweek. Tuesday could be the wettest day and that may lead to some street flooding. As the week progresses and the disturbance moves north, we should see more sun and less rain.

The threat meter on this feature is extremely low. Again, NOTHING has developed yet, it may in 5 days and the chances of that happening are 30%. This is a good reminder that hurricane season is right around the corner and you should start preparing for a season that lasts 6 months. It officially begins June 1st.

No comments:

Post a Comment