Wednesday, May 6, 2015

Disturbance East of Florida looking better

NHC has been watching an area of disturbed weather over the last few days. This area of clouds and rain has brought us a few downpours from time to time and there is still a chance for some rain for the rest of the week.

The recon mission scheduled for today was scrubbed, but there is another one on stand-by for Thursday at 10am.

As of early Wednesday afternoon South Florida had seen just a few showers, but there is more activity just offshore and Northwestern Bahamas that could provide us with spotty rain. 

NHC says it appears an area of low pressure is forming, and this area of clouds and rain may develop as it moves over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream current.

As you know, warm waters of at least 80°s is one of the main ingredients for tropical systems to grow. This is like their gasoline, and there is plenty of that where the disturbance sits. We could see a sub-tropical or tropical system developing.

What is the difference between a sub-tropical and a tropical storm?
A tropical storm draws most of its energy from the warm ocean waters and thus has a warm core. A sub-tropical storm may act the same, but it works as a "typical low" like the type you would find over land, thus its center is cold.

This is the latest as of 2pm Wednesday from NHC: 
Conditions are expected to become gradually more favorable for development over the next day or so while this system moves slowly northward and then northwestward.

A subtropical or tropical cyclone could form by tomorrow or Friday, and interests along the southeast coast of the United States should
monitor the progress of this system through the weekend.  

Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible over portions of the coastal southeastern United States beginning Thursday.  The chances for organization have grown to 60% throughout the next 5 days.

If it develops, where is it headed?
First we must take into account that nothing has developed as of this writing.

Since there is no starting point, computers can't give us an ending point, so at this moment they are purely guessing.

NHC has deemed this area of disturbed weather as  INVEST 90L (because they would like to INVESTigate it further).  These are the very first model runs... again most are just guessing.

What should we prepare for:
With a possible tropical system near by, downpours cannot be ruled out over the next few days.
These downpours may cause street flooding.

This is a good reminder, that the hurricane season starts June 1st. Take the time now to prepare for a season that lasts 6 months and should be ready for whatever Mother Nature throws our way.

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