Tropical Storm Michael aims for Florida

Tropical Storm Michael organized on Saturday just East of the Yucatan Peninsula.  By Sunday afternoon, a recon mission found the center to be closer to Cuba.  Tropical Storm Advisories are in place for Western Cuba and the Northeastern Coast of Yucatan.

The satellite imagery shows plenty of cloudiness over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea. There is plenty of moisture there and heavy rain is expected for the Western Province of Pinar del Rio in Cuba. Eventually, that rain will get displace over South Florida.

Where is it Headed?

For the time being, strong tropical storm force winds are only found in the area highlighted in yellow. High pressure across the Western Atlantic will keep Michael on a NW course until midweek when the high starts moving east. At the same time a front will move into Louisiana helping to push the storm into the Southeast. There is warm water in the Gulf of Mexico and that could provide enough fuel for the system to grow stronger.  There's also a possibility the center of Michael can regenerate a little further East on Monday and that could shift the cone closer still to Central and South Florida.

Most model runs are in agreement with the forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) keeping Michael over the Gulf until midweek.

The three main points from NHC

• Michael should be a rain event in the short term for Western Cuba and Yucatan Peninsula
• Tropical Storm force winds of over 40 mph should move over the Yucatan Channel and into the Gulf Sunday night into Monday
• Michael has a chance to grow into a hurricane by Wednesday 

Southeast Florida Mainland Impacts

Some of Michael's rain should start to move in overnight by way of its outer bands.

Isolated funnel clouds and waterspouts possible

Breezy to windy until Tuesday

Florida Keys Impacts

• The system should travel around 300 miles west of the Island Chain. 
• A flood advisory may be issued on Monday
• On and off heavy rain bands. 70% chance of rain on Monday
• Small chance for tornadoes
• Localized flooding is possible. This means seawater intrusion across yards, docks, seawalls, and storm drains.

While South Florida may not see a direct strike, second hand impacts can be on the strong side. We'll be monitoring.