Major Michael

Hurricane Michael is poised to become a major System with winds over 111 mph sometime on Tuesday. 

Health Check 

The latest satellite loop is showing further intensification despite some shear in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Monday night the forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said,  this strengthening under the present conditions "defies traditional logic".  Typically shear or strong upper level winds. help keep systems from developing or at least keep them in check. 

That hasn't happened with Michael. You can even see the eye forming northwest of Cuba. As of late Monday night it was roughly 35 miles wide.

The Forecast Cone

Michael will get steered into the Gulf of Mexico by high pressure in the Western Atlantic.  Most models weaken the shear over the next 24 hours. That fizzling of the shear along with very warm Gulf waters, will provide enough fuel for Michael to grow stronger. It could very well be a category 3 just before landfall across the Panhandle. Hurricane Warnings are in place for that area.

Wind Field

Hurricane force winds (74 mph +) extend out from the center 35 miles. Tropical Storm force winds, reach out from the center as far 175 miles.

If nothing were to change with its intensity, forward speed, or direction, the strongest winds should be near Panama City around noon Tuesday. Tropical storm force winds could possibly reach as Far East as Tallahassee and as far west as Pensacola.

Heavy Rain

Michael is also capable of heavy rain. The highest amounts over 5 days will stretch from Pensacola Northeast into the Mid Atlantic States. The Carolinas do not need any more rain or flooding as they are just starting to clean up after Hurricane Florence.

South Florida Forecast

Michael's impacts on our area will be a tad difficult to forecast. As the storm gets stronger, its spin will pull moisture towards the center. This inward pull could drag all the rain away from South Florida. and thus keep us drier. But, moisture south of Cuba could make it all the way here and bring us on & off heavy downpours.

Our in-house model is not calling for much rain, but any that does make it here might be heavy enough to cause some street flooding. If we get any squally weather, winds could briefly kick up to 35 mph. 

At the beaches rip currents will be an issue.

Because it may be breezy, the wind could help our already high King Tides, get even higher. This will keep the threat of coastal flooding in place for the Beaches with a higher chance for the Keys.

We'll keep you posted

Hurricane Michael

Michael was upgraded to hurricane status at 11 am Monday morning by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), and is on pace to grow stronger as it aims for Florida's big bend.

While the general motion of the system is towards the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, hurricane hunters continue to indicate the center is still drifting East. The Florida Keys should continue to monitor the track of the storm. Even if it stays on a northward track, you will still feel its impacts.

Health Status:

It is looking more symmetrical. Since Saturday, the western side of the storm was still being hampered by shear, but as of this moment, the clouds are building to the west. This is an indication the shear is relaxing.


An eye is beginning to appear

Plenty of warm water for it to intensify further

Where is it headed?

The official cone from NHC, takes Michael into the Gulf of Mexico, then late on Tuesday, turns it into North Florida. It could make landfall anywhere between the Big Bend and the Panhandle. There is also a chance it could become a major hurricane, category 3 (111 mph winds), just before moving onshore. Everyone there should be preparing now. 

Once it makes landfall, the misery will not be over as models keep it somewhat organized as it moves across the Carolinas dropping more rain, something they do not need. They are still dealing with Florence's aftermath.

So why this track?

Tropical systems do not move on their own, they need something else to push it around. These are called steering winds. High pressure in the Atlantic, has winds flowing clockwise, while the jet stream over the nation's midsection with a trailing front, has winds flowing counterclockwise. The combination of these, will push Michael north and then northeast. A reminder the atmosphere is not stagnant and any deviation of the above can have a direct impact on the future track.

• The following are the Most Important Points NHC wants you to know:
• Michael is forecast to get stronger
• Life threatening surge is possible along the West Coast of Florida regardless of where it makes landfall
• Heavy rainfall may lead to dangerous flash flooding from the Big Bend to the Carolinas

All of the above can be expected

across Western Cuba and NE Yucatan.

South Florida impacts:

While the system may track to our west, its impacts will be felt hundreds of miles away from the center.

• Coastal Flooding: High tides are already running higher due to the seasonal King Tides. Add to that gusty onshore winds from Michael, and minor coastal flooding is possible.
• Rain:  Most of the rain is situated on the Eastern Side of the storm. If nothing changes on the track, the Keys, the Mainland and even the Bahamas could see on and off stormy weather. If the rain sticks over one area, it could lead to street flooding. The Keys may see 2 - 4 inches of rain through Tuesday.
• Wind: There is a possibility that the wind could briefly gust up to 30 - 40 mph during any rain bands that move in.
• Tornadoes: The ingredients will be present in the atmosphere for twisters to form through Tuesday.

We will be monitoring.

Tropical Storm Michael aims for Florida

Tropical Storm Michael organized on Saturday just East of the Yucatan Peninsula.  By Sunday afternoon, a recon mission found the center to be closer to Cuba.  Tropical Storm Advisories are in place for Western Cuba and the Northeastern Coast of Yucatan.

The satellite imagery shows plenty of cloudiness over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea. There is plenty of moisture there and heavy rain is expected for the Western Province of Pinar del Rio in Cuba. Eventually, that rain will get displace over South Florida.

Where is it Headed?

For the time being, strong tropical storm force winds are only found in the area highlighted in yellow. High pressure across the Western Atlantic will keep Michael on a NW course until midweek when the high starts moving east. At the same time a front will move into Louisiana helping to push the storm into the Southeast. There is warm water in the Gulf of Mexico and that could provide enough fuel for the system to grow stronger.  There's also a possibility the center of Michael can regenerate a little further East on Monday and that could shift the cone closer still to Central and South Florida.

Most model runs are in agreement with the forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) keeping Michael over the Gulf until midweek.

The three main points from NHC

• Michael should be a rain event in the short term for Western Cuba and Yucatan Peninsula
• Tropical Storm force winds of over 40 mph should move over the Yucatan Channel and into the Gulf Sunday night into Monday
• Michael has a chance to grow into a hurricane by Wednesday 

Southeast Florida Mainland Impacts

Some of Michael's rain should start to move in overnight by way of its outer bands.

Isolated funnel clouds and waterspouts possible

Breezy to windy until Tuesday

Florida Keys Impacts

• The system should travel around 300 miles west of the Island Chain. 
• A flood advisory may be issued on Monday
• On and off heavy rain bands. 70% chance of rain on Monday
• Small chance for tornadoes
• Localized flooding is possible. This means seawater intrusion across yards, docks, seawalls, and storm drains.

While South Florida may not see a direct strike, second hand impacts can be on the strong side. We'll be monitoring.