Labor Day Tropical Wave

We are watching a couple of features in the Atlantic basin, the closest to South Florida is a wave near Hispaniola. There is also a new depression in the Far Eastern Atlantic.

 

We begin with the wave.

We are following the area of clouds and rain extending from Eastern Cuba, to the Dominican Republic, that is the tropical wave. These features are very difficult to forecast because they are highly disorganized. While it may be moving in our direction, its rain can be thrown out in many directions. While our chances for rain will go up during the next few days, it's almost impossible to pin point exactly where it will rain.

The wave has slowed down and as of Friday night it appears the bulk of its moisture will start to move in on Sunday. By Labor Day, the chances for rain will be at their highest with 70%. Lingering moisture across South Florida will keep the probability for downpours around through next Friday.

Track Breakdown

We are using the wettest model we can find and that happens to be the European. It shows the bulk of the moisture over Haiti, Eastern Cuba, & Southeastern Bahamas. Saturday should see our typical chances for rain. Possibly the best day of the holiday weekend.

Sunday is when the moisture starts to move in on Central Cuba, Central & Northwestern Bahamas, as well as South Florida.

Labor day sees the highest volume of available moisture settle in over much of South and Central Florida. This is when the chances for rain will be at their highest.  Remember, waves are fickle, growing quickly or weakening just as fast so we could end up seeing anything from scattered downpours to pockets of heavy rain that may lead to street flooding.

Will this wave threaten South Florida as something stronger?

To answer that question we need to look at what is surrounding the wave.  For that we turn to our Shear Forecast.

Shear is very strong upper level winds that act as a blade cutting down the high cloud tops of developing storms. This "haircut" if you will, keeps systems in check. On the above image for Saturday, it shows the shear as hues of green to brown, with brown being the strongest. The wave is completely surrounded so, not much of a chance for any growth.

The same can be said on Sunday as the shear remains firmly locked around the wave. No chance for any development.

It's a different story on Monday, when the shear weakens and gives the wave some room to breath. If it's going to grow into something stronger it may do so here, once past South Florida.

What is the National Hurricane Center saying?

NHC is thinking along the same lines. They believe if its going to start developing into a depression or a storm it may do so in the Gulf of Mexico. They are giving this possibility a 20% chance over a period of 5 days. If it does organize, it may do so in the area highlighted in yellow.

A new Tropical Depression

Aside from the wave, we are also following brand new depression # 6. This grew out of  Potential Storm #6 moving close to the Cape Verde Islands. The good news here is that after it moves away from Cape Verde and possibly reaches tropical storm status, it will remain over the open waters of the Atlantic.

Have a safe and hopefully not so wet Labor Day weekend!