Watching Two in the Tropics

The peak of Hurricane season is September 10th, and it appears as if the Atlantic basin is coming to life. Two areas are being watched in the tropics. One with the potential to become Tropical Storm Florence, and the other should provide a soaking to islands in the Caribbean as well as South Florida.

Let's begin with the vigorous wave impacting the Caribbean. 

On and off heavy rain has been reported for much of the day across the US Virgin Islands through Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, and Haiti. The Dominican Republic maintains a Flood Alert for some areas through Friday.

What is next for the Wave?

It will continue to move on a NW track through the weekend eventually moving over South Florida and ending in the Gulf of Mexico. Let's look at the European model which is the most aggressive model showing the wettest forecast

By Friday the rain will spread into Eastern Cuba, Haiti, & Southeastern Bahamas. Jamaica could see some scattered downpours from this as well.

On Saturday the moisture from the wave creeps into Central Cuba, and the rest of the Bahamas.

For the second half of the weekend, the wave should be positioned over us, leading to a good chance for heavy rain.  It could lead to street flooding in poor drainage neighborhoods.

Once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico by the early part of next week, the National Hurricane Center is giving it a 10% chance for development in the area highlighted in yellow.

Why the chance for organization there?

The wave is being surrounded by strong upper winds known as shear. This will be the pattern through the weekend keeping the wave in check. Once it reaches the Gulf, the shear (shown in green) weakens, allowing the wave some breathing room to grow. It could be a rain maker for the rest of Florida and the Gulf States.

The other activity in the Atlantic, is Potential Storm #6

It's very close to the Cape Verde Islands, and on the verge of becoming a depression or tropical storm. If it does become a storm, it will take the name, "Florence".

This system will get pushed into the middle of the Atlantic Ocean by high pressure sitting to the north. As of this writing, it should only be a worry for the shipping lanes.

What is a Potential Storm?

This is a classification that allows NHC to issue advisories before a system develops. This way, any land areas in it's path can prepare for the system early.