Today the National Hurricane Center made is 2014 Seasonal Outlook public.
For the upcoming season which begins June 1st, NHC is calling for a near normal season.
Named Systems 8-13 , the average is 12
Hurricanes 3-6 , the average is 6
Major Hurricanes 1-2 , the average is 3
They suggest that "El Niño", which is a warming of the Equatorial waters of the Pacific, should be responsible for keeping the season near average numbers.
"El Niño" tends to disrupt marine and atmospheric currents alike around the globe and thus should make conditions a bit more hostile for systems to form over in the Atlantic Basin.
The explanation is too simplistic, since we do not know yet how strong "El Nino" will be and when it will reach its maximum potential. As of now the projections call for a better the 65% chance that "El Nino" will happen by mid Summer.
Even if it does take place, DON'T let your guard down.
1992 was an "El Nino" year and we got slammed by Hurricane Andrew a category 5 system that devastated Deep Southern Miami Dade County. This is why everyone in the Hurricane Forecasting community will always tell you, "It only takes one".
So prepare accordingly. Many of us have been through this before and we do not panic or stress. We get things ready and when Mother Nature throws something our way, we act accordingly.
If you are new to the area, I have just the thing for you. WSVN will air a how to prepare program on May 30th at 8pm called, "Surviving a Storm".
Its very important , as many advisories from now on will be water based. More people die from storm surge and flooding than from any other threat from a hurricane.
The show is full of handy tips on what to do in case a hurricane approaches. For that matter, we should all watch and review our plans together .
I'll see you then.