Early Tropical Development?

The hurricane season kicks off Sunday and already there is something to watch for us.  Many tropical junkies have been texting me wondering about a possible soaking next week from what may be the season's first tropical system.

This is what we know:

• Models keep insisting on development of some sort in the Bay of Campeche.
• Two reliable models show, whatever develops, moving towards Florida
• Both suggest late next week/weekend potential arrival

The local weather office is keeping their eyes on this scenario as well.  The forecasters there say that between Tuesday and Friday we may get a better idea of what is to come.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY-FRIDAY)

ALTHOUGH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BEYOND THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME DUE TO NOTABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...BOTH INDICATE THE WET PATTERN CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION.

THE GFS REMAINS BULLISH AND CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LOW
AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

GFS Model Animation

THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SIMILAR...HOWEVER...NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE
GFS WITH THE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AROUND AND ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ECMWF Model Animation

The links above take you straight to each model's animation. All the areas shaded red are representative of high pressure systems (good), while the green tend to represent areas of low pressure (not good).
On the extreme right of the page, you should press on the forward button - this will start the animation. Some runs go out 120 hours, other more.

Towards the end of each run you will notice an area shaded green coming together in the Gulf of Mexico and aiming for Florida. This could be a possible tropical system.

The reason why we are watching this is because it could develop in an area very favorable for growth.

June systems usually occur either in the NW Caribbean Sea or in the Gulf of Mexico, and tend to travel north or northeast.

These bodies of water tend to heat up the fastest as we approach summer and thus can provide fuel for growth.

Pacific Connection?
This possible activity could be from an area the National Hurricane Center is watching in the Eastern Pacific.  This is what they are saying:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec are gradually becoming better organized.

Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for the development
of this disturbance during the next few days as it begins to drift generally northward.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this
system has the potential to produce locally heavy rains over portions of western Central America and southeastern Mexico this coming week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Possible tracks:
Some models here take it into the Gulf, where it could then develop into a tropical depression.

WORRY LEVEL:
For the time being, Very low. Nothing has developed yet. We will probably get t-storms and pockets of rain here over the next few days, but it will NOT be from this feature.

This is a great reminder to all of us that Hurricane Season does start this Sunday and we should all try and make sure our supplies are ready.