T.S. Fernand

Heavy rain and gusty winds will impact Central Mexico on Monday from a storm that brewed up over the weekend. Despite traversing over land and meeting some unfavorable conditions early in its development, this weak wave managed to grow into a named system.

Even though this is a weak system with top winds of around 45 mph, it will be the rain that will cause much of the trouble.

NHC says:

RAINFALL...FERNAND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
VERACRUZ...HIDALGO...NORTHERN PUEBLA...SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...AND
EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR
12 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.



We expect Fernand to weaken further as it makes its way inland across Mexico.

A Tropical System Aiming for Mexico

So I've been working in the yard all day and just sat down for a quick peek at the weather, and lo and behold we've got an area of disturbed weather with a decent chance for development.

Where is it?
Its basically over land over the Yucatan.

 It is a tropical wave that has spun an area of low pressure and is accompanied by plenty of cloud cover and rain.

What next?
NHC is giving it a 50% chance for development over the next five days as it moves west.

A recon plane is on stand-by for Sunday to check it out if need be.

Where is it headed?
The models are pretty much in agreement this feature will continue to move west throughout the next 120 hours.

Only one moves it into Texas, and that is a statistical model that takes into account all the storms that have formed over the years in this area and averages out their tracks.


Even if it doesn't grow it will dump plenty of rain over Central Mexico. This will lead to flooding, land and mudslides over the region.

Erin & Yucatan Low

Over the past few days we have been following two areas, Tropical Storm Erin in the Far Eastern Atlantic and an area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula. Both are very weak as of Friday morning.

Lets begin with the activity close to home.

The low has now moved west into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Satellite imagery shows a highly disorganized system with most of the rain to the East of the center.

Models show the system moving NW and running into the jet stream in about 2 days. What happens next will dictate its future.

• If it moves west like most of the models suggest, then there is a chance that this feature could grow and develop.
• If it tracks due North, then the strong winds from the jet will shred whatever is left. The remnants could still produce heavy rain.

What does this mean for us?

The Water Vapor imagery gives us an idea of how much moisture is available with the low. The darker colors represent potentially heavy rain areas.

There is a clear spin in the middle of the Gulf caused by an upper low. This is helping to draw showers and storms away from the surface low and push it our way.

There is also a front stalled across the Southeast visible by the line of clouds moving west to east, this should trap the moisture here.

We will be watching for this set up over the weekend. If that moisture moving our way holds, it could bring spotty storms, however up to now, the rainfall has been minimal.

Tropical Storm in the Far Eastern Atlantic:
Then there is Tropical Storm Erin. looking very weak and highly disorganized.  Its present environment will keep it on life support for another 48 hours but after that it will run into drier air. NHC keeps it around until Wednesday night making a turn towards the open waters of the Atlantic. This system continues to be a nuisance for the shipping lanes.

Tropical Storm Erin

Tropical Storm Erin was born early Thursday morning from a depression off the West Coast of Africa.
Satellite imagery suggests a good looking storm. There is plenty of banding at the surface giving it a more classical hurricane look, while outflow is well established in the upper levels.


The system is over 4000 miles away from South Florida so no need to worry about this one, it will only be a concern for the shipping lanes.


For the moment "Erin" is enjoying a favorable environment for growth with little shear and warm sea surface temperatures, but in 48 hours the party should come to an end as cooler waters lay in its path.

Over the next 5 days it will travel almost due West as high pressure pushes it in that direction.

Even though NHC does not expect "Erin" to grow much stronger than a storm, interests in the Lesser Antilles should watch it closely.

Areas such as Puerto Rico have been hit very hard with record setting rains, any additional activity and flooding could be an issue.

Meanwhile we are still eyeing an area of low pressure Southwest of Cuba. It has lost some of its punch overnight as it moves West over Belize.

Plenty of rain there could cause isolated flooding.  Heavy rain is also impacting Coastal Yucatan with torrential downpours.  NHC is now giving this Low, a 50% chance it could grow into a depression/storm over the next 2 days. That chance grows to 60% once it moves into the warmer waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

Most models are in agreement that if anything were to develop here, it will move over the Yucatan and into the Gulf.

After that, models fan out with some moving the system into Mainland Mexico, others Texas, and even a few take it to Louisiana.

The moisture associated with this feature should keep us soggy this Thursday with mostly cloudy skies.

The rest of the forecast depends on the Low, if it moves away fast enough we could see a nice weekend but if it meanders then more rain can be expected.

Watching Two

August is starting to give us some activity in the tropics. We begin with two waves that a mere 24-48 hours ago were highly disorganized and now both are showing signs of development.

The first is in the Caribbean Sea:
This feature has dumped plenty of rain across Jamaica and Eastern Cuba.  It continues to travel west northwest with nearby observations indicating that a low pressure system may be forming.  Most of the heavy rainfall now sits between the Cayman Islands and Coastal Honduras.

NHC says this possible low has a 60-70% chance of turning into a depression or a tropical storm before it reaches land.

In the short term it is aiming for the Yucatan Peninsula. After that models fan out, some tracking the system towards the Gulf States and others pushing it into Mexico.

Local Impacts:
Now that the wave appears to be getting organized, it will wrap all the moisture around its center of circulation but some of it will escape and make its way into South Florida. How much will depend on how fast it gets its act together, regardless plan on some showers late tonight and a better chance for some tropical downpours on Thursday.

High pressure will dispense this system to the northwest where it will run into the jet stream over the Gulf.  What happens next is really up in the air.

It could:

• Fall apart
• Get bounced towards Texas, Louisiana, or even Florida's Panhandle
• Get shoved back towards Mexico.

The second feature is almost 4 thousand miles away from Florida. 

This is already an area of low pressure just to the Southeast of the Cape Verde Islands.

It appears to be poised for additional growth. NHC gives it a 70-80% chance it could grow into a depression or storm anytime over the next 5 days.

It does have one huge obstacle ahead of it, some dry air and strong shear. It should run into that unfavorable wall in about 48 hours. It may spell the end of it. All we can do is watch and wait.

If it survives, most models place the system somewhere in the middle of the Atlantic in 120 hours.