Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Invest 99 Changes Little

NHC is following a large wave with a weak low level circulation roughly 1150 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. They are giving it a 20% chance it could grow stronger over the next few days as it moves west at a speed of 10-15 mph.

Here are the stats as of Tuesday morning. Lat: 9.3 N,  Lon: 39.6W, with top winds of  23 mph, and a pressure of  1010mb. Not that impressive, but it does have some showers and thunderstorms embedded along the low level center keeping it as an area worthy of watching.

Lets take a look at what is working for and against INVEST 99.


  • It continues to travel over warm waters that will provide more fuel for this tropical engine.
  • Upper winds remain light so it should not encounter any major roadblocks in its possible development .

Temperatures are running in the low 80's along the Lat/Lon that Invest 99 is traversing.


  • Still plenty of Saharan dust in the atmosphere that could absorb all of its moisture and dry it out

Everyone throughout the Caribbean Basin should watch this feature closely as it could impact the area in a few days. Most models now take the possible system through the Lesser Antilles, and into the Caribbean Sea where there is a good chance it could grow further.  These new runs keep it further south than they did on Monday when they showed it moving more towards the Bahamas.  We'll keep monitoring it.

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