Watching a low in the Caribbean

The map above shows an area of Low Pressure in the Southwestern Caribbean Sea. It will be status quo for this feature over the next few days .

This is the latest data from NHC: A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N81W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA TO 12N BETWEEN 77W AND 81W.

Lets take a look at some items impacting this area.

1. In its favor: The broad low is sitting over an area that is cliamatologically favored for development. It is also sitting over very warm water. As you know, the hotter the water, the more energy for systems to grow.


2. Working against it: Strong upper level winds are keeping it in check and not allowing it to grow vertically.

The low will meander over the Caribbean at least through Friday. When it does begin to move, it will probably travel in a northeasterly direction pushing most of the rain over Jamaica, Eastern Cuba and Hispaniola. You may remember Haiti suffered greatly from tropical floods last year, they do not need a repeat of that. We in turn need the rain, but it will probably by-pass us altogether.

We will watch it just in case it tries to throw us a curve ball.