Monday, May 30, 2011

Early signs

This is the latest from the tropics. Notice the two Tropical Waves in the Caribbean Sea.

The first wave is in the Southeastern Caribbean impacting the coast of Venezuela with limited moisture. Strong upper winds will keep it in check.

The second is pushing into Northeastern Colombia with minimal shower activity. This one should be absorbed by the local wind pattern soon.

The most important feature we are following, is not even seen on the map above.

This one could consequently be of relevance to us. It is a huge area of disturbed weather over the middle of the Caribbean Sea. Latest observations indicate a possible broad area of low pressure in the Western Caribbean with plenty of moisture. Cloudiness and rain from this area extend all the way out to Hispaniola and even Puerto Rico.

Because high pressure is sitting over this area, a few long range models place some of that rain here later this week. High pressure directly over an area of low pressure is part of the recipe for a tropical system to develop. This is why NHC is suggesting further strengthening of the low with possible development in 36 to 72 hours.

Rain is also pushing out of the Caribbean and traveling Northeast impacting the Southeastern Bahamas as well as the Turks and Caicos islands.

The final item we are watching is an area of low pressure indicated by the "L", on the map. It is an upper low which in turn is pushing a few smaller surface lows along. In the long run this may develop into a full surface low but as of now it is not showing any signs of that. If it did grow stronger, upper level winds should keep it away from the Continental U.S.


  1. Hi Phil,

    Thanks for writing these snippets. Its always good to get more in-depth about the weather situation! I'm a total weather nerd and while I'm no meteorologist (I'm in the IT field), I'm always learning!

  2. Thanks. I will try to post these insights as much as I can. I am hoping to provide a better picture of what is happening in the tropics... sometimes my TV time does not allow for such a lengthy recap, so this will be the spot for that. Thanks again.