The National Weather Service issued their rainy season outlook this week and this is a summary of what they said.
NWS expects a slightly above average rainy season with most of the rain coming after July.
Because the ground is so dry,we are under an "Extreme Drought" so expect a High Fire risk until then.
A Neutral ENSO (Neither La Nina nor El Nino) is the main reason for this outlook, although they place "low confidence" on the forecast. NWS is also counting on at least one tropical system to make up for the deficit.
FYI:The average rain deficit for our dry season during a LA NINA year is about 4". The 2010-2011 season has seen around a 16" deficit.
Average precip for rainy season is 44". This is about 70% of the annual amount.
The Criteria for rainy season is three consecutive nights of above 70° temps and dew points, with daily t-storms.
Average Start date of the rainy season is May 20-27th. Average end is October 17th.