2 Hurricanes in 2 Weeks

Parts of Central America are set to get hit by a second destructive hurricane.  Imagine getting hit by not 1 but two category 4 systems in a matter of weeks. This is what will happen to Nicaragua and Honduras as early as Monday.

The satellite loop shows a very healthy hurricane on its way to becoming a major system shortly. You can clearly see a center spin, with plenty of feeder bands, and some high clouds rotating in the opposite direction as the storm. This is known as outflow. 

Imagine the center of the storm as an empty tube of paper towels. Hot moist air enters at the surface or bottom of the tube, feeds the storm, and then exits in the upper levels or the top of the tube. If the tube is not bent or impacted by strong winds, the feeding process goes off without a hitch. The air at the surface spins in a counterclockwise rotation but by the time it exits at the top, its spinning in the opposite direction. This is outflow and it means Iota is running on all cylinders and its not good news for our friends in Central America.

Where is it going?

It will move ashore over the same area Hurricane Eta did on November 3rd. It impacted  Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua with destructive category 4, 140 mph winds and flooding rains. Hurricane Iota will be an unwanted and unwelcomed repeat performance.

This is what is forecast:

Iota will approach Northeastern Nicaragua and Eastern Honduras possibly late Monday or very early Tuesday. NHC says it will be an extremely dangerous Cat 4 hurricane by then.

Rain Projections

• 8 - 16" with up to 30" in spots - Honduras, Northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, Southern Belize. This will lead to major flooding, land and mudslides, over an area that is just in its infancy of cleaning up after Eta. 
• 4 - 12" - Panama & Costa Rica  
• 3 - 10" - Southern Nicaragua and El Salvador  
• 1 - 3 with possible 12" is some areas of Northern Colombia.

Hoping for the best. We'll be watching.

So. Florida in the Cone

The track of Eta has it moving towards South Florida. It's forecast to make a turn west, but it will be a matter of timing whether South Florida sees a direct impact.

The latest:

• The center of Eta is back over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea
• Plenty of rain across Belize and parts of the Yucatan Peninsula
• It is now forecast to restrengthen

The system will continue to drench parts of Central America until it makes its way to Cuba by the weekend. The Cayman Islands are now under storm advisories as the system should track in their direction.

What Next?

Eta should become a Tropical Storm later today as it soaks up all the fuel from warm Caribbean waters. As it nears Cuba, it will run into high pressure sitting in the Western Atlantic. It will bounce off it and be sent west. When that bounce happens, will dictate when it makes the turn into the Gulf of Mexico.

Its intensity should remain in check. There are some strong upper level winds across Cuba that should keep Eta from gaining too much strength.  But keep an eye on it. This year many systems have intensified just before landfall. In any case, some tropical Storm watches/warnings may be issued as the system approaches South Florida.

Presently there is a Wind Advisory in place for Broward County from the Beaches west to I-95 and the same for Miami Dade Co, extending to the Turnpike in Southern Miami Dade. This runs thru Saturday at which time it may get replaced by tropical advisories. 

A Rain Event

The biggest concern with Eta will be the amount of rain it could drop. Expecting:

• Cayman Islands: 10" - 20" inches with some areas as much as 30" 
• Jamaica: 2" -  5" with up to 15" in spots
• The Bahamas & South Florida:  5" - 10" with up to 15" possible along the East Coast 

Any additional rainfall over already waterlogged South Florida will lead to flooding. The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for Metropolitan Broward & Miami-Dade thru next week.

Bottom line:

There's a tropical system moving our way. It may get bounced into the Gulf of Mexico, just unsure as to when it will happen. Even with no direct impact, heavy rain is forecast to move over South Florida.  The radar below is live to help you keep track of the rain.

We'll be watching

Now we Watch

Weaker Eta still dumping rain across Central America. Now Cuba, South Florida and the Bahamas wait for its second act.

Eta still has a broad spin but it is quickly losing all the checkmarks of having "depression" classification. It should become a a regular area of low pressure later today. It will continue to drench many areas across Central America.

What is Next?

• Models indicate that high pressure steering Eta west is leaving the area and moving back into the Atlantic. 
• Another spin developing in the Gulf, but in the upper levels of the atmosphere, will begin to push Eta back into the Caribbean Sea.  Eventually Eta will re intensify into a tropical storm. 
• The track suggests it will cut across Cuba, and as it enters the Florida Straits, it will hit the high pressure system now sitting across the Bahamas. Depending how early or late this bounce happens, will determine where Eta will end up.
• The center of Eta could be anywhere inside the cone, not just where the storm symbol is situated.

Its intensity is being set at Tropical Storm, but be ready just in case it decides to get a little stronger on its arrival.

Even if the system arrives weak anywhere near So Florida, it is still capable of heavy downpours that will lead to the threat of street flooding.  NWS may issue a flood watch as their models show the potential for anywhere between 7 to 10 inches.

Please stay alert.

Weaker Eta, still packing a punch

Eta Weakening but remains very dangerous

Eta is moving over Northeastern Nicaragua, still looking good on satellite imagery, but its rains have decreased in intensity. It will continue to lose organization over the next two days as it travels over land. 

The experts at the National Hurricane Center (NHC), say Eta should become a regular area of low pressure in 48 hrs with the surface spin almost gone. The upper spin however, should remain intact. 

What it means: Imagine a full roll of paper towels. The tube in the middle is the center or the eye, and the paper towels represent the rain bands. The paper towels are being used and getting tossed but not all, and the bottom part of the tube has been cut off by the ground, but the top part of the roll remains. This upper part is forecast to regenerate the bottom once over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea.

While Eta's downpours have decreased, it's still dropping plenty of rain across Northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize. The threat of flooding, land & mudslides are present even for Yucatan Peninsula, and El Salvador, as well as, Haiti, Cuba, & Cayman Islands.

What Next?

If Eta can survive its interaction with land, this is what may play out. Three features are set to determine Eta's path:

• An upper low developing over the Northern Gulf of Mexico
• Jet stream over the U.S.
• High pressure in the Western Atlantic Atlantic.

An Upper Low, is an area of low pressure spinning counter clockwise. It will start to nudge Eta towards the northeast and into the Caribbean over the next few days.  The jet stream is a river of very strong gusty winds moving west to east. It will eventually add an even stronger push to Eta, sending it in our general direction. High pressure is just east of the Bahamas and will act as a road block to Eta, keeping it in our vicinity. 

This scenario spells more rain for the Caribbean Islands and then possibly South Florida / NW Bahamas.

At the moment, forecast models do not show it any stronger than a storm if it gets to South Florida. But as you know, intensity forecasting is extremely difficult. You have seen how quickly storms have grown as they near land this year, so keep that in mind.

What is possible

As the above three features start to come into play, plenty of tropical moisture will get drawn into South Florida on Thursday and Friday. This will lead to the possibility of heavy rain leading to flooding. The area could see downpours through the weekend. After that, it all depends on Eta's path. If it swings towards the Northern Bahamas, we may see less rain, if it moves over South Florida or even the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, we will see even more downpours.

This system in the month of November is a reminder that hurricane season is not over. As a matter of fact, hurricane season is a man-made timeline. Systems can brew at anytime of year as long as water temps are 80 degrees or above, this is their fuel. Typically sea surface temps are at their warmest from June through the end of November and thus, we call this hurricane season.

When and if watches and warnings are issued for South Florida, you should act accordingly.

We'll be watching