Watching the Tropics Close to home

Gray, windy, and rainy for much of South Florida and the Bahamas over the next few days.

We are stuck between high pressure to the north and lower pressure to our south. This imbalance will keep the winds up and help drag in moisture.

This mess is being monitored by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for possible development.

Satellite View

Sat View Courtesy Tropical Tidbits

Thursday Update

• There is a big area of clouds and rain across Cuba, the Bahamas, and parts of South Florida.
• As long as this remains disorganized, it'll cause rain & wind for the region. How much will depend on it's movement. Some models call for a trace to a couple of inches.
• If the pressure starts to drop quickly, that's an indication it could try to organize into something stronger. It could mean an early start to hurricane season.

What does NHC say?

If an area of low pressure does form near the Straits, it should move NNE. Once it enters the area highlighted in red, it will have a good chance to develop into a depression, tropical storm, or even a subtropical system. It could happen over the weekend.

What do the models say?

The European Model above, develops the low close to the Eastern Seaboard Saturday night. Then it moves east into the Atlantic.

The GFS or American model, organizes the system a bit closer to So FL. Then it moves out into the Atlantic. NHC will have another update around 3 pm this afternoon.

What it means for South Florida, Cuba & the Bahamas

Even if nothing develops, the soupy mess over us will keep a chance of rain (heavy at times), and some gusty winds through the weekend.  This is the radar loop from the National Weather Service. Where you see dark greens, yellows and oranges, those are areas of moderate to heavy rain. It will slowly move NNE. Forecasts suggest up to 2" - 3" may come down thru Saturday.

For a detailed look of rain in the Bahamas, check out this link:
Bahamas Radar Site

For the Cuban Radar view click on this link:  Cuban Radar

Winds will be an issue 

A wind advisory is in place for all metropolitan areas of South Florida through Friday morning. Gusts may be as strong as 35 mph or more.  Weak tree limbs and loose objects will be impacted. Be alert.

I'll keep you posted as this potential tropical system aims for the Atlantic Ocean.