Models are indicating possible tropical rain for the end of the week/weekend impacting the Bahamas and South Florida with downpours and windy conditions.
Satellite View
Notice the line of clouds from Eastern Cuba, across SE Bahamas and into the Atlantic. This is the front that brought us record rain in Marathon last Sunday. It continues to meander across the region and could deliver heavy rain and gusty winds in the coming days.
National Hurricane Center
On Tuesday morning NHC issued this statement:
An area of low pressure is expected to develop this weekend a couple hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas. Environmental conditions appear conducive for this system to acquire some subtropical characteristics as it moves northeastward through Sunday. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 PM EDT Tuesday, or earlier, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
This means they think the area of clouds nearest the SE Bahamas has a 50% chance of developing into a subtropical system. In simple terms, most tropical storms have a warm center, subtropical systems tend to have a cold center. Outside of that, they can drop as much rain and have just as strong winds as an average storm.
Where will it form?
The area highlighted in orange is where NHC thinks it could form over a period of 5 days.
What to expect?
- The potential is there for very wet conditions and some gusty winds starting sometime Wednesday for the Bahamas, and as early as Thursday for South Florida.
- Chances for rain will stay thru Sunday.
- The system, if it does develop, should get pushed away from the region by a front coming out of the Nation's midsection. Regardless, a chance for heavy rain persists.
This is a good reminder hurricane season is around the corner, starting June 1st. Now is the time to review your plans and be prepared for a season that lasts 6 months.
We'll keep watching
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