Hurricane Season Starts Monday

Hurricane Season 2020 starts Monday June 1st.

All indications point at what could be an active 6 month stretch.
Even at this hour the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a few areas for possible development.

Early Start

It seems Mother Nature gets started earlier and earlier every year. May 2020 had two systems develop, Arthur and Bertha. The last time we had two organize in May was 2012 with Alberto and Beryl.

2020 Season Forecast

NHC is calling for 13 to 19 named systems, out of which 6 - 10 could become hurricanes, and out of that number possibly 3 - 6 could turn major. Those are hurricanes category three or above with winds surpassing 111 mph. If you compare that to what is typical, it seems we're in for an above average season.

NHC broke down the chances of storm activity for this year. They say there's only a 10% chance for a below average season, 30% of near average, and 60% of above average. A reminder these outlooks will never tell you when and where a system will make landfall. Prepare accordingly and you will be ready for whatever comes our way.

A tropical system will never take you by surprise like an earthquake or a tornado. At WSVN, we will alert you, sometimes over a week in advance, of any storm aiming for South Florida and the Bahamas.

Why this Forecast?

NHC cites a number of reasons, but here are the top three:

• No El Niño. This is a warming of the Equatorial Waters of the Pacific Ocean. They disrupt Marine and Atmospheric currents alike and help keep hurricane formation in check in the Atlantic Basin. 
• Warmer Ocean Temps. They have been running warmer over the last few years and are expected to do so again in 2020. Hot water of 80 degrees or above is the fuel tropical systems need to develop. Temps surrounding Florida are already in the low to mid 80s.
• Plenty of  Moisture. Models suggest a lot of it coming out of the Eastern Atlantic that could supply growing systems with plenty of atmospheric water to help them develop more and more thunderstorms.  

Our Commitment

The entire WSVN Weather Team will keep you informed of any activity throughout the Tropics. We will provide you with all the info you will need to get ready and stay safe. It'll be a long 6 months, but the more information you have, the better decisions you will make. 

What a Storm!

Monday Night was indeed a stormy one as remnant moisture from Arthur and a disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere in the Gulf of Mexico, conspired to bring South Florida and the Bahamas a deluge of rain, wind, and lightning.

Rain Totals

The downpours dropped large amounts of rain that led to street flooding in many areas.

In general 1-2" in most spots

Many of you took pictures of the event and shared them with me. They are too numerous to share, but here's just a taste of what took place.

Possible Funnel Cloud by Pembroke Pines

Coral Springs

Broward County

Downpour near I-75

Storms approaching Hollywood

Thank you to Kary Fernandez, Leonie Fzerep, Annette Lopez, Jenn Dawn, Hasnain Arched, Lorie Ferguson, Mauricio Pimenta, Andy Simancas, and AJ just to name a few of the dozens and dozens of followers who sent me their great looking pictures. Remember to always be in a safe spot before snapping a shot.

Watching the Tropics Close to home

Gray, windy, and rainy for much of South Florida and the Bahamas over the next few days.

We are stuck between high pressure to the north and lower pressure to our south. This imbalance will keep the winds up and help drag in moisture.

This mess is being monitored by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for possible development.

Satellite View

Sat View Courtesy Tropical Tidbits

Thursday Update

• There is a big area of clouds and rain across Cuba, the Bahamas, and parts of South Florida.
• As long as this remains disorganized, it'll cause rain & wind for the region. How much will depend on it's movement. Some models call for a trace to a couple of inches.
• If the pressure starts to drop quickly, that's an indication it could try to organize into something stronger. It could mean an early start to hurricane season.

What does NHC say?

If an area of low pressure does form near the Straits, it should move NNE. Once it enters the area highlighted in red, it will have a good chance to develop into a depression, tropical storm, or even a subtropical system. It could happen over the weekend.

What do the models say?

The European Model above, develops the low close to the Eastern Seaboard Saturday night. Then it moves east into the Atlantic.

The GFS or American model, organizes the system a bit closer to So FL. Then it moves out into the Atlantic. NHC will have another update around 3 pm this afternoon.

What it means for South Florida, Cuba & the Bahamas

Even if nothing develops, the soupy mess over us will keep a chance of rain (heavy at times), and some gusty winds through the weekend.  This is the radar loop from the National Weather Service. Where you see dark greens, yellows and oranges, those are areas of moderate to heavy rain. It will slowly move NNE. Forecasts suggest up to 2" - 3" may come down thru Saturday.

For a detailed look of rain in the Bahamas, check out this link:
Bahamas Radar Site

For the Cuban Radar view click on this link:  Cuban Radar

Winds will be an issue 

A wind advisory is in place for all metropolitan areas of South Florida through Friday morning. Gusts may be as strong as 35 mph or more.  Weak tree limbs and loose objects will be impacted. Be alert.

I'll keep you posted as this potential tropical system aims for the Atlantic Ocean.

Possible Tropical Development

Models are indicating possible tropical rain for the end of the week/weekend impacting the Bahamas and South Florida with downpours and windy conditions.

Satellite View

Notice the line of clouds from Eastern Cuba, across SE Bahamas and into the Atlantic. This is the front that brought us record rain in Marathon last Sunday. It continues to meander across the region and could deliver heavy rain and gusty winds in the coming days.

National Hurricane Center

On Tuesday morning NHC issued this statement:

An area of low pressure is expected to develop this weekend 
a couple hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for this system to acquire some 
subtropical characteristics as it moves northeastward through 
Sunday. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system 
will be issued by 9 PM EDT Tuesday, or earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

This means they think the area of clouds nearest the SE Bahamas has a 50% chance of developing into a subtropical system. In simple terms, most tropical storms have a warm center, subtropical systems tend to have a cold center. Outside of that, they can drop as much rain and have just as strong winds as an average storm.

Where will it form?

The area highlighted in orange is where NHC thinks it could form over a period of 5 days.

What to expect?

• The potential is there for very wet conditions and some gusty winds starting sometime Wednesday for the Bahamas, and as early as Thursday for South Florida.
• Chances for rain will stay thru Sunday.
• The system, if it does develop, should get pushed away from the region by a front coming out of the Nation's midsection. Regardless, a chance for heavy rain persists.

This is a good reminder hurricane season is around the corner, starting June 1st. Now is the time to review your plans and be prepared for a season that lasts 6 months.

We'll keep watching