2019 Hurricane Season Forecast

2019 Seasonal Outlook

We began the season with Subtropical Storm Andrea.It lasted for only 19 hours between between May 20-21st. This marks the fifth year in a row with tropical activity before the start of June.

The forecast is calling for 9 to 15 named systems to develop, out of which 4 to 8 could become hurricanes, and out of that number, 2 to 4 could reach major hurricane strength.

The Monkey Wrench: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), has published reports saying that hurricanes are growing stronger in the Atlantic Basin due to Climate Change.

For example, Harvey intensified in a short period of time before striking Texas a few years back , and Hurricane Michael transformed from a category 1 to 5 in a mere 24 hours. Keep this is mind as you plan.

Research also shows that of the four category five systems that have impacted the U.S. in recent history, each had an intensity of a tropical storm just three days away from land. This means, we need to pay attention to every system as they can rapidly grow and cause major damage.

El Niño's 2019 forecast

El Niño is a warming of the equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean. It impacts marine and atmospheric currents alike. Typically when there is a strong El Niño, it creates upper winds that help cut down storm formation in the Atlantic Basin. This is very good for us.

This year the forecasts calls for El Niño, lasting through summer and weakening as we move into fall. The outlook suggests a 70% chance of  El Niño through September, with chances dropping to 55-60% by October We will monitor its progress closely since the peak of hurricane season is in November.

Stay with us though out the season as we track any and all threats across the Atlantic.