Labor Day Tropical Wave

We are watching a couple of features in the Atlantic basin, the closest to South Florida is a wave near Hispaniola. There is also a new depression in the Far Eastern Atlantic.

 

We begin with the wave.

We are following the area of clouds and rain extending from Eastern Cuba, to the Dominican Republic, that is the tropical wave. These features are very difficult to forecast because they are highly disorganized. While it may be moving in our direction, its rain can be thrown out in many directions. While our chances for rain will go up during the next few days, it's almost impossible to pin point exactly where it will rain.

The wave has slowed down and as of Friday night it appears the bulk of its moisture will start to move in on Sunday. By Labor Day, the chances for rain will be at their highest with 70%. Lingering moisture across South Florida will keep the probability for downpours around through next Friday.

Track Breakdown

We are using the wettest model we can find and that happens to be the European. It shows the bulk of the moisture over Haiti, Eastern Cuba, & Southeastern Bahamas. Saturday should see our typical chances for rain. Possibly the best day of the holiday weekend.

Sunday is when the moisture starts to move in on Central Cuba, Central & Northwestern Bahamas, as well as South Florida.

Labor day sees the highest volume of available moisture settle in over much of South and Central Florida. This is when the chances for rain will be at their highest.  Remember, waves are fickle, growing quickly or weakening just as fast so we could end up seeing anything from scattered downpours to pockets of heavy rain that may lead to street flooding.

Will this wave threaten South Florida as something stronger?

To answer that question we need to look at what is surrounding the wave.  For that we turn to our Shear Forecast.

Shear is very strong upper level winds that act as a blade cutting down the high cloud tops of developing storms. This "haircut" if you will, keeps systems in check. On the above image for Saturday, it shows the shear as hues of green to brown, with brown being the strongest. The wave is completely surrounded so, not much of a chance for any growth.

The same can be said on Sunday as the shear remains firmly locked around the wave. No chance for any development.

It's a different story on Monday, when the shear weakens and gives the wave some room to breath. If it's going to grow into something stronger it may do so here, once past South Florida.

What is the National Hurricane Center saying?

NHC is thinking along the same lines. They believe if its going to start developing into a depression or a storm it may do so in the Gulf of Mexico. They are giving this possibility a 20% chance over a period of 5 days. If it does organize, it may do so in the area highlighted in yellow.

A new Tropical Depression

Aside from the wave, we are also following brand new depression # 6. This grew out of  Potential Storm #6 moving close to the Cape Verde Islands. The good news here is that after it moves away from Cape Verde and possibly reaches tropical storm status, it will remain over the open waters of the Atlantic.

Have a safe and hopefully not so wet Labor Day weekend!

Watching Two in the Tropics

The peak of Hurricane season is September 10th, and it appears as if the Atlantic basin is coming to life. Two areas are being watched in the tropics. One with the potential to become Tropical Storm Florence, and the other should provide a soaking to islands in the Caribbean as well as South Florida.

Let's begin with the vigorous wave impacting the Caribbean. 

On and off heavy rain has been reported for much of the day across the US Virgin Islands through Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, and Haiti. The Dominican Republic maintains a Flood Alert for some areas through Friday.

What is next for the Wave?

It will continue to move on a NW track through the weekend eventually moving over South Florida and ending in the Gulf of Mexico. Let's look at the European model which is the most aggressive model showing the wettest forecast

By Friday the rain will spread into Eastern Cuba, Haiti, & Southeastern Bahamas. Jamaica could see some scattered downpours from this as well.

On Saturday the moisture from the wave creeps into Central Cuba, and the rest of the Bahamas.

For the second half of the weekend, the wave should be positioned over us, leading to a good chance for heavy rain.  It could lead to street flooding in poor drainage neighborhoods.

Once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico by the early part of next week, the National Hurricane Center is giving it a 10% chance for development in the area highlighted in yellow.

Why the chance for organization there?

The wave is being surrounded by strong upper winds known as shear. This will be the pattern through the weekend keeping the wave in check. Once it reaches the Gulf, the shear (shown in green) weakens, allowing the wave some breathing room to grow. It could be a rain maker for the rest of Florida and the Gulf States.

The other activity in the Atlantic, is Potential Storm #6

It's very close to the Cape Verde Islands, and on the verge of becoming a depression or tropical storm. If it does become a storm, it will take the name, "Florence".

This system will get pushed into the middle of the Atlantic Ocean by high pressure sitting to the north. As of this writing, it should only be a worry for the shipping lanes.

What is a Potential Storm?

This is a classification that allows NHC to issue advisories before a system develops. This way, any land areas in it's path can prepare for the system early.