Monday, May 23, 2016

Tropical Activity Early Next Week?

Many of you have texted/e-mailed me regarding the possible development of an area of low pressure next to Florida by early next week.  It seems that the weather channel has been making a big deal of this.

They say:
"SOME computer models are HINTING at the development of a weak surface low off the Southeast coast or in the eastern Gulf.  This possible low could gradually acquire either subtropical or tropical characteristics and become a depression or named storm."

There are plenty of coulds and possibles regarding this low.  So lets take a look at what is happening and what may happen.

The Big View:
The satellite imagery covering the entire Atlantic Basin is quiet. Clouds by Cuba are related to a weak front moving East, away from us. Skies are clear over the Gulf, most of the Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean. It is hard to foresee anything developing over the next 5 days. But stranger things have happened.

The GFS model is suggesting an area of low pressure north of the Bahamas in around 102 hours. In this scenario, most of the rain is to the north of the low.

The CMC or Canadian Model is also looking at an area of low pressure right around the same spot but in about 5 days.

What these models can't tell us, is how strong any of this may be. It is just a projection. This may just be an area of clouds and rain, or as the Weather Channel is hinting, it could be something stronger. Based on the sea surface temperatures which are already above 80 degrees in many areas, there is enough energy for something to form. Its just too early to tell.

Bottom Line:
One should never reach a conclusion based on a handful of models. Nothing has developed yet so there is no clear starting point. If there is no clear starting point, the ending point is also an educated guess. The National Hurricane Center has not issued anything related to this. When and if they do, then we'll have something to follow and forecast.

For the time being:
Hurricane season begins June 1st. Regardless of development offshore, you should be ready for whatever Mother Nature throws our way. Get ready now and you'll avoid the crowds and the headaches down the road.  By the way, WSVN will air a preparedness special entitled "Surviving a Storm" Friday May 27th at 8 pm.

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