Tuesday, May 24, 2016

Hurricane Center watching the Bahamas

As of  3:30pm Tuesday, NHC is watching an area by the Bahamas for possible development. There is an area of clouds and rain that extends from the Florida Straits, NE into the Western Atlantic. This is part of a front that has brought us the storms over the last few days.

Officially Hurricane Season kicks off on Saturday , June 1st, but this is a man-made time frame.

Storms can happen at any time as long as there is plenty of fuel in the form of hot water, 80 degrees or above.

Water temps:
Right now most of the Caribbean is registering sea surface temps in the low to mid 80s, with an area between Cuba and the Bahamas in the mid to upper 80s.

There is enough energy to sustain whatever develops. This is one of the main reasons why NHC is issuing this Formation Potential update.

 January Hurricane 

If you recall, we already had a hurricane in January in the Atlantic by the name of Alex. .

Alex was the first hurricane to form in January since Alice in 1955 and also the first to form in the month of January since 1938. 

It originated as an extratropical cyclone near the Bahamas on January 7, 2016. The system initially traveled northeast, passing Bermuda on January 8, before turning southeast.

It eventually got stronger and reached hurricane-force winds by January 10.

Nothing has Developed Yet!

NHC keeps the chances of something developing at zero over the next 48 hours. The chances go up to 30% over 5 days. If anything were to develop, it would do so in the area highlighted in yellow.

What are the models saying?:

The European:
This model keeps the feature as a tropical wave or a disturbance through the weekend, with plenty of rain for the SE Bahamas and Eastern Cuba.

If this model pans out, there is a possibility places like Haiti, Dominican Republic, the Central Bahamas, and Eastern Cuba could see some flooding from total rain accumulations.

The GFS model:
It suggests a possible area of low pressure near Georgia come Sunday night into Monday, Memorial Day.

In this outcome, coastal rain is a possibility across the Carolinas and as far inland as West Virginia.

Our In-House model:
It keeps the area of clouds and rain, as just that, with most of the downpours staying offshore by Saturday afternoon.

With these model variations, we have narrowed it down to 2 possible scenarios. Everything will depend on high pressure sitting over the Western Atlantic.


Scenario Number 1:
Will keep the area of disturbed weather over the Bahamas, drawing in rain that should eventually reach South Florida by the Holiday Weekend.

Scenario Number 2:
Has the high weakening and moving East, opening the door for whatever develops to head for the Southeast or even the Middle Atlantic States.

Bottom Line:
Nothing has developed yet. I repeat, nothing has popped up. NHC is issuing formation chances as a precautionary measure. All we can do right now is watch and wait. This is a good reminder that hurricane season starts on June 1st and you should be ready.  WSVN will air our hurricane preparedness special entitled, "Surviving a Storm" Friday at 8 pm.

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