Thursday, September 5, 2013

Watching 5 areas, including Gabrielle

Tropical Storm Gabrielle formed from an area of low pressure in the Eastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday. Since its birth, it has not looked impressive on satellite imagery.

Most of the alleged tropical storm force winds remain tightly packed near the illusive center of circulation.  At times there have been moments and flurries of activity that suggest strengthening, but most of the thunderstorms are to the Northeast of the center.

It does have good outflow in the upper levels, but for the time being, there are no signs of further organization.

Meanwhile, the center is getting harder and harder to detect.

NHC sent a recon plane to get a better handle on this system and as of Thursday morning, Gabrielle has been downgraded to a depression.

Where it will go if it survives is more certain.

High pressure to its East and the jet stream to its NW, will carry what is left of "Gabrielle" northwest and into Hispaniola

For now, the islands will be dealing with tropical downpours.

Heavy rains continue across Puerto Rico.

  • A Flash Flood warning is in place 
  • 3-6 inches of rain are possible through Friday, with some areas getting as much as 12"
The Dominican Republic is on alert as they too may get heavy downpours

  • A land and mudslide watch is in place

Besides weak Gabrielle, there are four other areas NHC is watching.

From the Gulf to the Atlantic:

  • There is an elongated area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche.  Because it is moving over warm waters, NHC gives it a 30% chance it could develop into a depression or a storm as it aims for Central Mexico.
  • Right next door to Gabrielle is a Tropical Wave . NHC gives it a 20% chance that it could turn into a mature tropical system in about 5 days. Right now, its proximity to Gabrielle is hindering its growth potential.
  • A Tropical Wave roughly 500 miles West of the Cape Verde islands is showing some signs of life. NHC keeps its chances at 10% over the next 5 days.

But we are not done: (NOT PICTURED) Most models suggest a disturbance over Africa will move into the Atlantic waters in a few days with a decent chance for organization. NHC is already giving it a 30% chance for growth once it moves into the Eastern Atlantic waters.

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