Wednesday, June 5, 2013

Invest 91 Chances Improving

We continue to watch a broad area of low pressure in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico. This area of clouds and rain seems to have a split personality (in many ways).

  • While its producing a large area of rain and wind... its center is not any better organized.
  • Most of the clouds, wind and rain are on the Eastern side of the poorly defined center,  the Western side is mostly dry.
  • NHC says it could become a depression or even a tropical storm by Thursday... yet its chances for that to happen are only at 50%.
  • Most models keep insisting on torrential downpours for South Florida, yet most of the heavy rain has stayed away.

To get a better idea on all of this, and where it may eventually end up....a recon mission is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon ( 2 pm)  if need be in order to find out where exactly the center of circulation can be found. They call it a "Possible Fix Mission".

The models are in fair agreement that whatever develops, should aim for Northern Florida... but plenty of moisture should move here through the end of the week. That could still keep us soggy.

For us, this is what we can expect. As the low tries to get organized, it will pull most of the rain towards the center. This means the higher chances for rain should be in SW Florida.  This doesn't mean we couldn't see some tropical downpours,  just  better chances will be around Naples and Ft. Myers.  The Keys could see some rain as well.


  1. good post Phil... a lot of questions on timing here. Looks better and yet no real center. Are pressures dropping? IF it IS developing that would account for less rain on the SE Coast.. a bit IF

  2. Sorry for late response. Andrea kept me on the air a lot . Loved your blog !