Monday, August 20, 2012

Tropics, back in Action

It has been a little hectic at the Ferro household, with summer vacation coming to an end, and getting the kids back to school... my free time has been hard to come by.  Thankfully the tropics have been rather quiet, but low and behold as the kids get settled in, something has popped up in the Atlantic that may have its sights set on South Florida.

NHC is keeping tabs on 4 areas. One near Mexico in the Gulf, aiming for that country. Gordon is in the Eastern Atlantic apparently aiming for Portugal as a depression or a weak low down the road.  A tropical wave near the Cape Verde Islands, and a good looking tropical low a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. This last one is the one we should watch. If it does develop, it will be called "Isaac".

Most models forecast this feature to impact the Leeward Islands, track over Hispaniola, and Cuba, and then be near Florida or the Bahamas in about 7 days.

Here is what it has going for it:

  • It will travel over the Caribbean Sea where Sea Surface temps are very warm and should provide enough fuel for growth.

Working against it:

  • If it directly impacts the islands, it will be traversing over some of the highest terrain in the region. Some peaks in Haiti are over 8,000 feet tall. This in essence should shred the storm.
  • If El Nino, is gaining strength, then upper winds should be counterproductive for this system to get stronger.

Lets watch this carefully.

I will be posting another update regarding the wave next to the Cape Verde Islands as it gets its act together .  Long range models place this one too near the Leewards Islands.  The Peak of Hurricane season is next month. Keep your fingers crossed.

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