Down to two

If you are a viewer of WSVN, you have probably heard me say many times in the past that tropical waves and disturbances are very difficult to forecast. They can grow quickly or fall apart just as fast. Case and point , the disturbance that we had approaching us from the Bahamas. It dumped plenty of rain on Friday, was forecasted to move over us and provide more tropical downpours, and at one time even NHC had given it a chance for development. Well.... it fell apart providing us with a rather nice Saturday.

It is no longer a big rain threat for us this Sunday  It is but merely a wrinkle in the atmosphere across Northern Florida. The local weather office is still hinting at enough leftover moisture for a few afternoon storms.

This is what they say:

.UPDATE...

THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAIN TO OUR

NORTH, WE STILL EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, AIDED PARTIALLY BY SEA BREEZES.

LATEST GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THE MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY

OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION, PEAKING BETWEEN 19Z-22Z.

In the Tropics: 

It appears El Nino is kicking in. What is happening now is what usually takes place  during an El Nino episode. Strong upper winds keep systems in check, as is the case of Ernesto, or they tend to curve storms out into the middle of the Atlantic, as is happening with Florence.

Ernesto is now a worry for parts of Central America and the Yucatan.

It should remain as a storm aiming for Belize. Even though winds are not that strong, it is still a rain maker.

Large amounts of rain could lead to land and mudslides specially over high terrain.

Ernesto could still become a hurricane if it survives landfall and then moves over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Florence will be a nuisance for the shipping lanes.

It is losing steam and the forecast calls for it to be a depression in about 5 days. If it survives, it could brush by Bermuda in the long run.