It is no longer a big rain threat for us this Sunday It is but merely a wrinkle in the atmosphere across Northern Florida. The local weather office is still hinting at enough leftover moisture for a few afternoon storms.
This is what they say:
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH, WE STILL EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, AIDED PARTIALLY BY SEA BREEZES.
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THE MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY
OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION, PEAKING BETWEEN 19Z-22Z.
In the Tropics:
It appears El Nino is kicking in. What is happening now is what usually takes place during an El Nino episode. Strong upper winds keep systems in check, as is the case of Ernesto, or they tend to curve storms out into the middle of the Atlantic, as is happening with Florence.
It should remain as a storm aiming for Belize. Even though winds are not that strong, it is still a rain maker.
Large amounts of rain could lead to land and mudslides specially over high terrain.
Ernesto could still become a hurricane if it survives landfall and then moves over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical Storm Florence will be a nuisance for the shipping lanes.
It is losing steam and the forecast calls for it to be a depression in about 5 days. If it survives, it could brush by Bermuda in the long run.