Sunday, August 1, 2010

Why we should watch INVEST 91

A wave that came off Africa on Saturday has already developed a low pressure center of circulation. It appears it will not meet the same fate that a previous wave did on Saturday. Late last week a vigorous wave pushed into the eastern Atlantic, only to be choked by dry air, suffocated by African dust and squeezed by this new wave.

This new low , known as INVEST 91, will stay South of all that hostile activity steering over warm ocean waters with very little shear ahead of it. Most models intensify the low taking it near the Lesser Antilles as a Tropical Storm in 5 days. If it does grow into a storm, it will be called "Colin".

The models are pretty much in agreement over its future path, but not so much in its intensity. This worries me a little more than usual and here is the reason why. It may travel through the "Hebert Box". What in darnations is that?

This Box was named after Paul Hebert, once a director of the local National Weather Service office, and former forcaster for the National Hurricane Center. I was fortunate to be proctored by him during my early Weatherman days in the 19... lets say a while ago.

His research of past hurricane tracks lead him to a theory that says: Nearly every Major Hurricane that has hit South Florida since the start of the 20th century went through these boxes.

The boxes are located in the Atlantic and Caribbean. The first box is found east of Puerto Rico and the second box is located over the Cayman Islands. He adds that storms don't have to go through the boxes to hit us but if they do you have to watch out.

The pattern has proven accurate for 9 out of 10 storms that developed & hit Dade,Broward & Palm Bch Counties.

Now compare Box 1 with the latest model runs regarding INVEST 91... it just makes you wonder.
So what does this all mean? Right now nothing. But it is worth watching as INVEST 91 makes its way closer to the Hebert Boxes.

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