Monday, August 30, 2010

Hurricane Models like Athletes?

Many questions have arisen regarding the potential track of Earl and rightfully so. We all remember Hurricane Andrew with a similar track in 1992 and Hurricane Charlie in 2004. Charlie was expected to hit Tampa , but at the last minute changed course making landfall father South near Punta Gorda.

I have received countless e-mails, calls and texts regarding this question... "are you sure Earl wont hit us?" The truthful answer is no. Nothing is ever certain.

We rely heavily on highly complex and specialized computer models. Their forecasts are as good as the information given to them. Many, like athletes go on streaks. Some models will nail down every forecast one year, and fail miserably the next. Its up to us to figure out which one is at the top of its game. This year, in my opinion, it's the CMC.

I have been following the CMC model since the beginning of the hurricane season, and thus far, it is performing the best. Accurately forecasting all the tracks ( even the loop that TD 5 made over the Southeast ) and possible landfall sites.

It has been showing Earl getting pushed along to the west by the Bermuda high and then at the same time, a trough ( a weak front, accompanied by an elongated area of low pressure ) moving off the Atlantic seaboard. This traps Earl and sends it to the north becoming a worry for the middle Atlantic states down the road.

Check out the CMC model run on this link:

Everything in blue are areas of low pressure, in orange high pressure. You will find Earl as a tight circle east of Puerto Rico. On the right hand of the page (on some it may be way at the bottom) click on fwd and see the animation take Earl to the East Coast of the USA.

Because the CMC has been accurate so far, I feel confident in its track. Still, models like athletes, can have an unexpected injury or slump so keep monitoring is track just in case mother nature throws us a curve ball.

No comments:

Post a Comment