New Tropical Storm?

On this 4th of July, Mother Nature may be providing some fireworks of her own in the Eastern Atlantic. An area of disturbed weather roughly 800 miles WSW of the Cape Verde Islands may be entering an area favorable for further development. We may have a tropical storm over the next 24 - 48 hours. If it does develop, it will called "Don".

Latest Data:
The broad low has a surface pressure of about 1009 mb. The Satellite image suggests strong thunderstorm action within 120 nautical miles of the alleged center and a cloud spin extending away from the center a good 300 nm.

Top winds have been clocked at Gale Force, roughly 30 miles per hour in only one area, near the SE part of the low.

The cloud pattern doesn't look any different than on Monday, yet today NHC is giving it a 70% chance for organization in 48 hours and 80% over 5 days.



Where may it organize?
The broad low will inch towards the west thru much of the day then pick up speed later tonight at around 10 - 15 mph. If this broad area of low pressure does develop, it will do so anywhere in the area highlighted in red.

Once it develops, where is it heading?
(Keep in mind nothing has developed yet and without a good starting point for the models to use, they can't give us a good ending point. Right now these are just an educated guess.)

High pressure will be pushing whatever develops to the west in the short term. By days 3 - 5, a weakness appears in the high allowing the system to take more of a NW track.

That track will place it near the Leeward Islands or Central Atlantic. The islands should keep monitoring it just in case.

For the moment across South Florida & the Bahamas, the worry meter is on low. Check back periodically for further updates.

New Invest

NHC is watching a broad area of low pressure way out in the Eastern Atlantic. It has been deemed Invest 94L, as it is an area the Center would like to INVESTigate further. So far this low has been sitting still, or moving slowly west, over the last day or so.

It remains roughly 700 miles SW of the Cape Verde Islands, at times showing signs of additional thunderstorm formation.

This low is also almost 3 thousand miles away from South Florida. We have plenty of time to see what, if anything, develops.

It could become a depression or a storm over the next few days. It has a 70 percent chance that it could spin up into something stronger, but that growth-window may not be open too long.
 

As it begins to move Northwest, it may develop anywhere in the area highlighted in red. It will have warmer waters with little wind sheer.

It may be able to stay south long enough of dry Saharan Air to its North. We'll be monitoring that. The Leeward Islands should monitor its progress just in case.

If it can somehow garner enough strength to develop, its expected to run into some strong upper level winds in about 5 days that could either weaken it or destroy it.

The area in yellow shows upper winds at the moment. They are blowing at around 20 - 30 mph, but by the weekend they'll be zooming out of the SW at around 50 - 70 mph.

That could cut down the cloud tops of any developing t-storms.




In the eventuality that it does develop,  where is it headed?
Early models are placing it near the Leeward Islands by the weekend. Take these models with a grain of salt.

Nothing has developed yet and since there is no good starting point for the models to use, they can't offer us a good ending point so use this as an educated guess as to where it may be in 5 days.

We'll keep you posted.